新型往返平漂式探空资料对长江中下游数值预报质量的影响  

The Influence of New Round-Trip Drifting Sounding Observation on the Quality of Numerical Prediction in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：张鑫[1,2] 王秋萍 马旭林 张旭鹏[3] 成巍 夏元彩 ZHANG Xin;WANG Qiuping;MA Xulin;ZHANG Xupeng;CHENG Wei;and XIA Yuancai(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Ningxia Meteorological Observatory,Yinchuan 750002;China Institute for Radiation Protection,Taiyuan 030006;Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology,Beijing 100029;Meteorological Observation Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]宁夏气象台,银川750002 [3]中国辐射防护研究院,太原030006 [4]北京应用气象研究所,北京100029 [5]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学》2025年第1期245-256,共12页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目U2242213;国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1506702;中国气象局数值预报(GRAPES)发展专项。

摘　　要：对于新型观测系统的建立,准确客观地评估其性能对系统的完善和发展具有重要的意义。我国新一代往返平漂式探空系统(Round-trip Drifting Sounding System,RDSS)创新性地突破了传统探空观测模式,通过一次释放实现“上升—平漂—下降”三段式观测,拓展了现有探空观测的能力和范围。本文利用基于伴随模式的预报敏感性方法(Forecast Sensitivity to Observations,FSO),研究了长江中下游目标区数值预报质量对新型探空观测资料的敏感性。结果表明:试验时段内同化常规观测资料均能够不同程度地减小预报误差,提高预报质量,其中风场和温度观测的贡献最为显著。新型探空试验资料对长江中下游目标区预报具有显著正贡献,71.4%时次的预报误差有了进一步的减小。经向风和湿度观测对预报质量的改善最为明显。新型探空风场观测对预报误差的贡献具有明显的空间差异,预报误差减小的大值区主要分布在试验站本站及其附近区域;整层新型探空风场、温度、湿度观测对预报质量的正贡献比较显著,仅对流层中低层的纬向风观测对预报质量呈现弱的负贡献。An accurate and objective evaluation of its performance is important for improving and developing the new observation system.Our new-generation RDSS(round-trip drifting sounding system)innovatively surpasses the traditional sounding observation mode.It realizes the“up-drift-down”three-stage observation with a single release,which expands the ability and scope of existing sounding observations.This study examines the sensitivity of forecasts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the new RDSS observation data using the forecast sensitivity to observations method.Results show that assimilating conventional observations can reduce forecast errors and improve quality to varying degrees,with wind and temperature observations contributing the most significantly.The new RDSS observational data have a more significant contribution to forecasts in the target area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The forecast error is further reduced by 71.4%in the test period after data assimilation combined with the new RDSS data,with meridional wind and humidity observation contributing the most.Moreover,the contribution of its wind observation exhibits obvious spatial differences,with large value areas of forecast error reduction mainly distributed in the test station and its vicinity.In addition,wind,temperature,and humidity observations from the new data in the entire layer significantly positively contribute to forecast quality,while zonal wind observations in the middle and lower troposphere have a slightly negative contribution.

关 键 词：数值预报 资料同化 预报敏感性 往返平漂式探空系统 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]