股价异常波动停牌影响了分析师预测准确性吗?  

Does Unusual Stock Price Volatility Suspension Affect the Accuracy of Analysts’Forecasts?

作　　者：王生年[1] 李啸雪 韩文静 Wang Shengnian;Li Xiaoxue;Han Wenjing(School of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《新疆农垦经济》2025年第3期83-93,共11页Xinjiang State Farms Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:72262028);国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:71862029)。

摘　　要：文章以2008—2020年沪深A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了股价异常波动停牌与分析师预测准确性的关系。研究发现,股价异常波动停牌提高了分析师预测准确性,当没有明星分析师参与、市场行情为牛市以及公司所在区域市场化程度较高时,股价异常波动停牌对分析师预测准确性的影响更为显著。机制分析表明,股价异常波动停牌引发的市场关注具有信息效应和监督效应,通过提高信息透明度和降低盈余管理,提升了分析师预测准确性。上述结果为我国进一步完善停牌制度和资本市场改革提供了重要的政策启示。This paper empirically examines the relationship between unusual stock price volatility suspension and analysts’fore-cast accuracy using a sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2020.It is found that unusual stock price volatility suspension improves analysts’forecast accuracy.It further found that the effect of abnormal stock price volatil-ity suspension on analysts’forecast accuracy is more significant if no star analysts are involved;the external market is bullish;and the company is located in highly-marketed region.The mechanism analysis shows that the unusual stock price volatility suspension has information effect and monitoring effect,which enhances analysts’forecast accuracy by increasing information transparency and reducing surplus management.The above results provide important policy insights to further improve the suspension system and capital market reform in China.

关 键 词：股价波动 异常波动停牌 分析师预测 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]