计及小概率场景能源管线风险的综合能源系统多目标扩展规划  

Multi-objective Expansion Planning for Integrated Energy Systems Taking into Account Energy Pipeline Risks in Small Probability Scenarios

作　　者：黄南天[1] 赵暄远 蔡国伟[1] 郭玉 HUANG Nantian;ZHAO Xuanyuan;CAI Guowei;GUO Yu(Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control&Renewable Energy Technology,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室,吉林132012

出　　处：《电气工程学报》2025年第1期197-207,共11页Journal of Electrical Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2019YFB1505405)。

摘　　要：随着能源系统不断转型及新型负荷的快速发展,在极端高温及极端低温等小概率用能场景下,需求侧用能行为日渐复杂,综合能源系统安全稳定运行风险逐渐提升。因此,提出计及小概率高用能场景下能源管线超负荷运行风险的综合能源系统多目标扩展规划方法。建立基于耦合对抗变分自编码器的场景生成模型,生成冷-热-电-气负荷场景,获取典型场景与小概率高用能场景;在此基础上,以系统扩展规划成本最低及小概率高用能场景能源管线风险最低为目标,建立计及小概率高用能场景的冷-热-电-气综合能源系统扩展规划模型;采用改进麻雀搜索优化算法进行算例求解,实现冷-热-电-气综合能源系统扩展规划,提升综合能源系统扩展规划经济性与运行可靠性。With the continuous transformation of energy systems and the rapid development of new types of loads,the demand-side energy use behavior becomes more and more complex under small probability energy use scenarios such as extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature,and the risk of safe and stable operation of integrated energy systems gradually increases.Therefore,a multi-objective expansion planning method for integrated energy systems that takes into account the risk of overload operation of energy pipelines under small probability high energy use scenarios is proposed.A scenario generation model based on coupled adversarial variational self-encoder is established to generate cooling-thermal-electricity-gas load scenarios and obtain typical scenarios and small probability high energy use scenarios.On this basis,with the objectives of minimizing system expansion planning cost and minimizing energy pipeline risk in small probability high energy use scenarios,a small probability high energy use scenario is established.On the basis of this,an expansion planning model of the cooling-heating-electricity-gas integrated energy system with the lowest system expansion planning cost and the lowest energy pipeline risk for the high energy consumption scenario is established.The improved sparrow search optimization algorithm is used to solve the algorithm to realize the expansion planning of the cooling-heating-electricity-gas integrated energy system.This method improves the economy of expansion planning and operational reliability of integrated energy systems.

关 键 词：综合能源系统 扩展规划 小概率高用能场景 耦合对抗变分自编码器 改进麻雀搜索优化算法 

分 类 号：TM561[电气工程—电器]