基于概率攻击图的网络安全态势自动化评估模型  

Automated assessment model of network security situation based on probabilistic attack graph

作　　者：曹慧 戴鑫 曹志刚 CAO Hui;DAI Xin;CAO Zhigang(Chnenergy Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]国能信息技术有限公司,北京100010

出　　处：《电子设计工程》2025年第6期169-173,共5页Electronic Design Engineering

摘　　要：为了在网络攻防对抗日益加剧的过程中更好地进行网络安全态势自动化评估,结合时间因素构建对概率攻击图进行改进的网络安全评估模型。综合考虑原子攻击需要的时间、漏洞扫描周期等因素,分析对应的攻击成功概率以及相应的防御收益,建立了网络安全态势的评估模型。通过蒙特卡洛方式对自动化评估模型进行验证实验,实验结果表明,自动化评估模型中路径攻击成功概率受多种因素影响,如针对路径2,攻击成功概率平均为0.25。同时,不同路径的防御收益随着扫描周期的增加均呈现一定程度的衰减。Based on the purpose of better automatic assessment of network security situation in the process of intensifying network attack and defense confrontation,a network security assessment model for improving the probabilistic attack graph is constructed by combining time factors.Considering the time required for atomic attacks,vulnerability scanning cycle and other factors,the corresponding attack success probability and corresponding defense benefits are analyzed,and an evaluation model of network security situation is established.The experimental results show that the success probability of path attack in the automatic evaluation model is affected by many factors,such as the average success probability of attack for path 2 is 0.25.At the same time,the defense benefits of different paths show a certain degree of attenuation with the increase of the scanning cycle.

关 键 词：原子攻击 概率攻击图 蒙特卡洛 自动化评估 扫描周期 

分 类 号：TN975[电子电信—信号与信息处理]