需求波动下生鲜农产品供应链库存分析与仿真研究  

Inventory Analysis and Simulation Research of Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain under Demand Fluctuations

作　　者：蔡龙翔 Cai Longxiang(Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650000)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《中国商论》2025年第5期96-101,共6页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：生鲜农产品供应链是食品供应体系的重要组成部分,其运行效率直接影响食品流通质量、损耗率及经济效益。然而,生鲜农产品的易腐性和需求波动较大,其库存管理面临库存积压及高损耗的问题。本文基于系统动力学方法,通过Vesim PLE软件构建了两级生鲜农产品供应链库存系统模型,通过仿真模拟分析比较需求波动下,传统库存管理与协同库存管理模式的效果。研究表明:生鲜农产品供应链库存系统存在显著的牛鞭效应,导致各环节库存波动,造成总库存量偏高、变质量居高不下的问题。协同库存管理可有效降低系统总库存量,减少因库存积压引起的变质损耗,显著提升供应链运行效率与经济效益。The fresh agricultural product supply chain is a crucial component of the food supply system,and its operational efficiency directly impacts food circulation quality,loss rate,and economic benefits.However,due to the perishable nature of fresh agricultural products and significant demand fluctuations,inventory management faces challenges such as inventory buildup and high loss rates.This study,based on the system dynamics approach,constructs a two-level fresh agricultural product supply chain inventory system model using Vensim PLE software.The study uses simulation to analyze and compare the effects of traditional inventory management and collaborative inventory management models under demand fluctuations.The results indicate that the fresh agricultural product supply chain inventory system exhibits a significant bullwhip effect,leading to inventory fluctuations at various stages,causing the total inventory to be excessively high and the volume of perished products to remain elevated.Collaborative inventory management can effectively reduce the total system inventory,minimize losses from perished products caused by inventory buildup,and significantly enhance the operational efficiency and economic benefits of the supply chain.

关 键 词：生鲜农产品 需求波动 供应链库存 系统动力学 仿真 库存模式 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F259.22