基于Tapio脱钩和LMDI分解模型的碳排放脱钩及驱动因素分析--以河北省为例  

Analysis of Carbon Emission Decoupling and Driving Factors Based on Tapio Decoupling and LMDI Decomposition Models--A Case Study of Hebei Province

作　　者：李爱玲[1] 刘傲 Li Aiing;Liu Ao(School of finance,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150028)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学金融学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《中国商论》2025年第5期142-146,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：哈尔滨商业大学青年创新人才项目“机构投资者行为与股票市场下行风险研究”(2020CX13)。

摘　　要：河北省作为工业大省,经济发展依赖工业且能源结构以高碳化石燃料为主,碳减排至关重要。文章通过构建Tapio碳脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,以河北省2001—2021年碳排放和经济数据为研究对象,深入分析了碳排放脱钩及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)河北省碳排放变化量近些年呈现下降趋势。(2)河北省碳排放脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,强脱钩状态不稳定。(3)影响碳排放的因素中,能源强度和经济发展水平影响最大,经济水平的快速发展会增加碳排放量,能源强度降低能抑制碳排放。据此,文章对河北省及与之相似省市未来的减碳方向提出了参考建议。As a large industrial province,Hebei Province relies on industry for its economic development and its energy structure is dominated by high-carbon fossil fuels,so carbon emission reduction is crucial.By constructing the Tapio carbon decoupling model and the LMDI decomposition model,the article analyzes the decoupling of carbon emissions and the driving factors by taking the carbon emissions and economic data of Hebei Province from 2001 to 2021 as the research object.The results show that:(1)The amount of carbon emission changes in Hebei Province has shown a downward trend in recent years.(2)The decoupling state of carbon emissions in Hebei Province is dominated by weak decoupling,and the strong decoupling state is unstable.(3)Among the factors affecting carbon emissions,energy intensity and economic development level have the greatest influence;rapid development of economic level will increase carbon emissions,and lower energy intensity can suppress carbon emissions.Accordingly,the article puts forward reference suggestions for the future direction of carbon reduction in Hebei Province and provinces and cities similar to it.

关 键 词：碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI分解模型 碳脱钩指数 低碳发展 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F205