Impact of net-zero emissions on atmospheric CO_(2) concentration in China: Ideal simulations based on the GEOS-Chem model  

作　　者：Jingye TAN Jun WANG Huiqin MAO Hengmao WANG Zhiqiang LIU Meirong WANG Ran YAN Xunmei WANG Fei JIANG 

机构地区：[1]Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling,International Institute for Earth System Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China [2]Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology,Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources,School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China [3]Satellite Environmental Application Center,Ministry of Environmental Protection,Beijing 100094,China [4]CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy,Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China [5]State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [6]Xizang Field Station for Scientific Observation and Research on Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog,Xigazêand Mêdog National Climate Observatory,Xizang Meteorological Service,Lhasa 850000,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2025年第3期867-881,共15页中国科学(地球科学英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFB3904801);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42475129);the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. BK20221449);the Xizang Science and Technology Innovation Base Construction Project (Grant No. XZ202401YD0008);the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (Grant No. 2023-EL-ZD-00022)。

摘　　要：Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2)) concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO_(2) concentrations. To investigate the impact of China's carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO_(2) concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry(GEOS-Chem). Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO_(2) (XCO_(2) ) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2(OCO-2) and surface CO_(2) measurements in Obs Pack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO_(2) . The model exhibits a root mean square error(RMSE) of 1.51 ppm(R^(2)=0.89) for OCO-2 XCO_(2) in China and 2.65 ppm(R^(2)=0.75) for surface CO_(2) concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr^(-1)in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO_(2) emissions in China decelerate the increasing trends of XCO_(2) to 1.81 ppm yr^(-1),making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude(SCA) of XCO_(2) is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO_(2) emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO_(2) trends over northern and southern China, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern China. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO_(2) emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO_(2) by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO_(2) sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally,trends and SCA in surface CO_(2) concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO_(2) emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO_(2) . Overall, our study underscores the potential of China's carbon neutrality goal in mit

关 键 词：XCO_(2) GEOS-CHEM Carbon neutrality Net-zero emissions Surface CO_(2)concentrations 

分 类 号：TN9[电子电信—信息与通信工程]