Numerical prediction of oceanic mesoscale circulation and satellite altimetry data assimilation in the Western Pacific  

作　　者：Zhijin LI Jianfang FEI Renhe ZHANG Xingliang JIANG Wenlong MA Xiaoping CHENG Lei LIU Guihua WANG Changlin CHEN 

机构地区：[1]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China [2]Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change,Shanghai 200438,China [3]College of Meteorology and Oceanology,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2025年第3期909-927,共19页中国科学(地球科学英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFF0801404);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42192552)。

摘　　要：Oceanic mesoscale circulations, primarily manifesting as eddies, typically span around 100 km horizontally and persist for about a month. These circulations represent the main component of oceanic kinetic energy and are referred to as the“weather” of the ocean. Forecasting efforts, focused on periods from a day to a month, target these mesoscale circulations.Advances in eddy-resolving models, observing systems such as Argo floats and satellite altimeters, and data assimilation techniques have enabled systems like HYCOM in the United States and Mercator-Ocean in Europe to predict these features effectively. To further enhance mesoscale forecasting, the Pacific Regional Ocean Forecast System(RPOFS) was developed for the pan-western Pacific(100°E–178°E, 20°S–50°N). Covering the dynamic Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions, RPOFS features a 3 km horizontal grid and 67 vertical levels, with a multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation(MS-3DVAR) scheme implemented. This system assimilates data from various sources, including satellite sea surface height and temperature, as well as subsurface profiles. In particular, an enhanced altimeter data assimilation methodology allows explicitly constraining both barotropic and baroclinic components of sea surface height. RPOFS demonstrates reliable forecasting of mesoscale circulations, with five-day forecasts accurately predicting eddies larger than 150 km and capturing features of the Kuroshio large meander. Forecasting errors are comparable to or smaller than those of HYCOM and Mercator-Ocean systems.

关 键 词：Western Pacific Ocean Ocean model Mesoscale eddy Numerical prediction Multiscale data assimilation Satellite altimetry 

分 类 号：P731.3[天文地球—海洋科学]