中国海洋旅游高质量发展双尺度评价及其组态路径  

Dual-scale Evaluation for High-quality Development of Marine Tourism in China and Its Configuration Path

作　　者：刘佳[1,2,3] 纪晓萌 LIU Jia;JI Xiaomeng(Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China;College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China;Technical and Economic Research Center,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,中国山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学管理学院,中国山东青岛266100 [3]中国海洋大学技术经济研究中心,中国山东青岛266100

出　　处：《经济地理》2025年第1期214-224,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271247);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MG014);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(202261075)。

摘　　要：文章构建了海洋旅游高质量发展“省域—市域”双重尺度评价体系,运用BP神经网络模型、核密度估计对2011—2022年中国沿海地区11个省份和56个城市的海洋旅游高质量发展水平进行综合测度,比较分析了省市双重尺度发展的时空分异规律,并基于“政府—技术—市场”制度逻辑理论,运用动态QCA识别了双重尺度的差异化发展路径。研究发现:(1)时序演进上,省域呈波动式和阶段性特征,市域整体发展向好。(2)类型结构和空间分异上,省域呈“低—较低—较高—高”内扩外缩的纺锤形结构,海域分异显著,由“多点开花”向“南北分化”转变;市域呈“低—较低—较高—高”由低到高梯度递减的金字塔结构,城市群集聚效应凸显。(3)发展路径上,省域由技术—市场共促驱动,市域为政府—技术—市场多元联动。This study establishes a dual-scale evaluation system for the high-quality development of marine tourism at both the provincial and municipal levels.Utilizing the BP neural network model and kernel density estimation,it comprehensively measures the high-quality development level of marine tourism in 11 provincial-level regions and 56 coastal cities in China from 2011 to 2022.It systematically compares and analyzes the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns across both provincial and municipal scales.Based on the institutional logic theory of"government-technologymarket",it employs dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis(QCA)to identify differentiated development pathways at both scales.The findings indicate that:1)In terms of temporal evolution,it exhibits fluctuating and phased characteristics at provincial level,and demonstrate an overall positive development trend at municipal level.2)In terms of type structure and spatial differentiation,it displays a spindle-shaped structure with"low-lower-high-higher"levels,expanding inwardly and contracting outwardly,accompanied by significant maritime differentiation that transitions from"multiple points of development"to"north-south differentiation"at provincial level.It exhibits a pyramid structure with"low-lower-highhigher"levels decreasing gradually from bottom to top,highlighting the agglomeration effect of urban agglomerations at municipal level.3)In terms of development pathways,it is driven by the synergy of technology and market at provincial level,and driven by the multifaceted interplay among government,technology,and market at municipal level.The research conclusions provide theoretical support for systematically evaluating the dimensions and logical relationships of high-quality development of marine tourism across both provincial and municipal scales,offering pathway guidance and decision-making basis for promoting the high-quality development of marine tourism in China.

关 键 词：海洋旅游 高质量发展 新发展理念 双重尺度 测度评价 组态路径 中国 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]