Principle-based adept predictions of global warming from climate mean states  

作　　者：Ming Cai Xiaoming Hu Jie Sun Yongyun Hu Guosheng Liu Zhaohua Wu Feng Ding Wanying Kang 

机构地区：[1]Department of Earth,Ocean,and Atmosphere Science,Florida State University,Tallahassee,FL 32306,USA [2]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China [3]Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China [4]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [5]Department of Earth,Atmospheric,and Planetary Sciences,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Boston,MA 02139,USA

出　　处：《National Science Review》2025年第2期124-137,共14页国家科学评论(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42222502 and 42075028 to X.H.);the National Science Foundation(AGS-2202875 and AGS-2202766 to M.C.);the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NA20OAR4310380 to M.C.);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(4248820 to Y.H.);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Peking University to F.D.).

摘　　要：Distinguishing anthropogenic warming from natural variability and reducing uncertainty in global-warming projections continue to present challenges.Here,we introduce a novel principle-based framework for predicting global warming from climate mean states that is based solely on carbon-dioxide-increasing scenarios without running climate models and relying on statistical trend analysis.By applying this framework to the climate mean state of 1980-2000,we accurately capture the subsequent global warming(0.403 K predicted versus 0.414 K observed)and polar warming amplification patterns.Our predictions from climate mean states of individual models not only exhibit a high map-correlation ski l l that is comparable to that of individual Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models for the observed warming,but also capture the temporal pace of their warming under the 1%annual CO_(2)-increasing scenario.This work provides the first principle-based confirmation that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the primary cause of the observed global warming from 1980-2000 to 2000-2020,indepe nde n tly of climate models and statistical analysis.

关 键 词：global warming energy balance energy gain kernel non-temperature feedback total climate feedback kernel 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]