甘肃省土地覆盖与肾综合征出血热的关联研究  

Association between land cover and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Gansu

作　　者：苟发香[1] 魏孔福[1] 王旭霞[1] 姚进喜[1] 成瑶[1] 刘新凤[1] 汪丽娟 马文娟 王龙 张晓曙[1] GOU Faxiang;WEI Kongfu;WANG Xuxia;YAO Jinxi;CHENG Yao;LIU Xinfeng;WANG Lijuan;MA Wenjuan;WANG Long;ZHANG Xiaoshu(Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Tianshui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianshui 741000,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,兰州730000 [2]天水市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,天水741000 [3]兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2025年第2期199-203,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划项目(22JR11RA187)。

摘　　要：目的了解土地覆盖与肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)发病风险的关联。方法以甘肃省HRFS流行地区为研究区域,收集2012年1月―2022年12月的HRFS病例资料及土地覆盖类型资料,以各县(区)及自然年为研究单位,使用泊松回归估计主要土地覆盖类型及土地覆盖类型比例与HRFS关联强度指标的相对危险度,使用限制性立方样条估计其主要土地覆盖类型比例与HRFS的暴露-反应关系。结果以草地为主要土地覆盖类型地区的HFRS发病风险是以农田为主地区的2.781倍(95%CI:2.336~3.310,P<0.01),而以森林和灌木为主要土地覆盖类型地区的HFRS发病风险低于农田,其RR值分别为0.455(95%CI:0.319~0.648,P<0.01)和0.130(95%CI:0.041~0.401,P<0.01)。HRFS发病风险随农田、荒地覆盖类型比例的增加而下降,随草地覆盖类型比例的增加而上升,与森林、灌木覆盖类型比例呈倒“V”型关系。结论甘肃省土地覆盖与HFRS发病风险有关联。HFRS防控策略与措施的制定应考虑土地覆盖及其变化,以减少对HFRS的流行风险。Objective To explore the relationship between land cover and the risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS).Methods Annual HFRS cases and landcover in epidemic areas of Gansu Province during January 1,2012 and December 31,2022 were collected and analyzed.Poisson regression model was applied to assess the relative risk of main land cover,landcover percentage and the risk of HFRS,and restricted cubic spline was applied to determine the corresponding exposure-response relationship.Results The HFRS risk in areas with main land cover of grassland was 2.781(95%CI:2.336-3.310,P<0.01)times in comparison with which in cropland areas,and the risk of forests and shrub areas was lower than which in cropland areas,with the coresponding RRs were 0.455(95%CI:0.319-0.648,P<0.01)and 0.130(95%CI:0.041-0.401,P<0.01).And the risk of HFRS increased with the percentages of grassland increasing,decreased with the percentage of cropland and barren increasing,and showed an inverse V-shaped relationship with the percentage of forests and shrub.Conclusions Land cover is associated with the risk of HFRS.The formulation of prevention and control strategies and measures for HFRS should consider land cover and its changes to reduce the epidemic risk of HFRS.

关 键 词：土地覆盖 肾综合征出血热 关联 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]