基于误差传递模型的导弹交班概率在线评估方法  

An Online Evaluation Method for Missile Handover Probability Based on Error Propagation Model

作　　者：朱勋磊 谢文龙 杨擎宇 ZHU Xunlei;XIE Wenlong;YANG Qingyu(Shanghai Electro-Mechanical Engineering Institute,Shanghai 201109,China)

机构地区：[1]上海机电工程研究所,上海201109

出　　处：《空天防御》2025年第1期95-101,共7页Air & Space Defense

摘　　要：为提升战术导弹综合性能,大量采用多模复合制导技术,空中交班策略为其中关键技术。传统方法采用蒙特卡罗离线统计以获得交班概率,导引头在线完成指向与搜索。该方法需要大量仿真统计,且只能适用于特定工况。本文提出一种基于误差传递模型的导弹交班概率在线评估方法,选取主要误差源,建立其对指向误差影响的传递链模型,并对模型进行简化,进而实现在线指向误差及交班概率计算,具有多工况适用、通用性强的优点。仿真结果表明,该方法在不同弹道条件下均能获得较为准确的交班概率,符合工程应用所需精度水平。Tactical missiles extensively adopt combined guidance technology to enhance performance,using air handover strategies as their key technology.The traditional method employs Monte Carlo offline statistics to obtain the handover probability at a single time and online adjusts the seeker’s direction and search strategy,which requires a large amount of simulation and can only be used for preset operating conditions.Considering the above,this paper proposed an online evaluation method for missile handover probability based on an error propagation model.Main error sources were selected to establish the propagation model.The model was simplified to realize online computation and beneficial to multiple and strong universality.Through simulation verification results,it’s found that the online evaluation method for handover probability can achieve a relatively accurate distribution of handover probability and pointing error under different ballistic conditions.In addition,the accuracy of the evaluation satisfies the requirements of engineering applications.

关 键 词：复合制导 空中交班 指向误差 误差传递模型 在线评估 

分 类 号：V249[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]