社会投资和经济发展对旅游综合产出的影响——基于中介调节和门槛效应模型  

The Influence of Social Investment and Economic Development on the Comprehensive Output of Tourism:Based on the Mediation and Threshold Effect Model

作　　者：庞家朋 李梦园 王明辰[1] PANG Jiapeng;LI Mengyuan;WANG Mingchen(School of Tourism,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China;Physical Education Department,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学体育部,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《旅游研究》2025年第2期29-44,共16页Tourism Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘旅游兴疆’背景下体育非物质文化遗产与旅游融合开发研究”(21CTY008);新疆财经大学硕士研究生调研项目“‘旅游兴疆’背景下体育非物质文化遗产与景区融合开发设计——以锡伯古城区为例”(XJUFE2023D013)。

摘　　要：文章基于2008—2021年20个省份面板数据,通过实证研究探讨社会投资水平和经济发展规模对旅游综合产出的影响机制,并分析其异质性和非线性关系。研究表明:直接作用显示社会投资水平和经济发展规模的提高显著促进旅游综合产出,异质性显示对西部地区促进作用更加明显,且在促进作用中存在以经济发展水平为门槛变量的单一门槛效应,在跨越经济发展水平门槛值后社会投资水平和经济发展规模对旅游综合产出的促进作用表现为更强;中介作用显示社会投资通过社会消费提高旅游综合产出,经济发展规模通过政府干预影响旅游综合产出;调节作用显示旅游接待能力正向调节社会消费水平对旅游综合产出的作用效果,旅游资源禀赋负向调节政府干预对旅游综合产出的作用效果。Based on the panel data of 20 provinces from 2008 to 2021,this paper explores the influence mechanism of social investment level and economic development scale on the comprehensive output of tourism through empirical research,and analyses its heterogeneity and nonlinear relationship.The results show that the direct effect indicates that the increase of social investment level and economic development scale significantly promotes the comprehensive output of tourism.The heterogeneity shows that the promotion effect on the western region is more pronounced,with a single threshold effect where the level of economic development acts as the threshold variable in the promotion effect.The promotion effect of social investment level and economic development scale on the comprehensive output of tourism is stronger after surpassing the threshold of economic development level.The intermediary effect shows that social investment promotes the improvement of comprehensive tourism output through social consumption,and the scale of economic development affects the comprehensive output of tourism through government intervention.The moderating effect shows that tourism reception capacity positively regulates the effect of social consumption level on the comprehensive output of tourism,while the tourism resource endowment negatively moderates the effect of government intervention on the comprehensive output of tourism.

关 键 词：社会投资 经济发展 旅游综合产出 中介调节效应 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]