Regional-scale risk assessment of forest fires induced by distribution lines via a hybrid approach  

基于混合方法的配电线路诱发森林火灾区域风险评估

作　　者：Hongrui Jiang Jiaqing Zhang Long Ding Binbin Zhang Tao Sun Jie Ji 蒋弘瑞;张佳庆;丁龙;章彬彬;孙韬;纪杰(中国科学技术大学火灾安全全国重点实验室,安徽合肥230026;国网安徽省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,安徽合肥230601;安徽省新型电力系统火灾安全与应急技术重点实验室,安徽合肥230601)

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China [2]State Grid Anhui Electric Power Research Institute,Hefei 230601,China [3]Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of New Type Power Systems Fire Safety and Emergency Technology,Hefei 230601,China

出　　处：《中国科学技术大学学报》2024年第12期50-61,I0007,I0009,共14页JUSTC

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3003101);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WK2320000050);the Science and Technology Program of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(521205220001).

摘　　要：Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.配电线路故障诱发的森林火灾事故频发,给人民生命安全和社会经济发展带来沉重打击。目前,针对架空配电线路诱发的森林火灾的风险评估很少,且现有的评估方法在数据获取方面可能存在困难。基于此,本文提出了一种基于层次分析法、贝叶斯网络和Fuseel-Vesely重要性度量的评估框架。该框架结合实地研究和历史运维数据,评估架空配电线路诱发森林火灾的区域风险,以得出森林火灾的发生概率,并确定评估区域内的高风险线路和关键危险事件。最后,以皖南地区为例,计算得出皖南地区架空配电线路引发森林火灾的年火灾概率为5.88%,并提出了整改措施。这项研究为管理人员提供了一个完整的评估框架,优化了数据收集的难度,并允许根据评估结果为整个区域和路线提出其他有针对性的整改措施。

关 键 词：overhead distribution lines regional risk assessment forest fire Bayesian network hazard identification 

分 类 号：S762.3[农业科学—森林保护学] TM75[农业科学—林学]