1990—2021年中国髋关节骨关节炎疾病负担现状与趋势分析  

Analysis of disease burden status and trends of hip osteoarthritis in China, 1990—2021

作　　者：郑升鹏 李政 徐伟龙 潘家文 姜自伟[1,4] 黄枫[1,4] ZHENG Shengpeng;LI Zheng;XU Weilong;PAN Jiawen;JIANG Ziwei;HUANG Feng(The First Clinical Medical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guangzhou 510405;Department of Orthopedics,Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital Affiliated to Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine,Shenzhen 518118;Department of Medicine,Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital Affiliated to Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine,Shenzhen 518118;Department of Trauma and Orthopedics,The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guangzhou 510405,China)

机构地区：[1]广州中医药大学第一临床医学院,广东广州510405 [2]广州中医药大学附属深圳平乐骨伤科医院骨关节科,广东深圳518118 [3]广州中医药大学附属深圳平乐骨伤科医院内科,广东深圳518118 [4]广州中医药大学第一附属医院创伤骨科,广东广州510405

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报(医学版)》2025年第2期257-264,共8页Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：黄枫全国名老中医专家传承工作室建设项目(No.国中医人教函[2022]75号);广东省中医药局科研项目(No.20241275)。

摘　　要：目的分析1990—2021年中国髋关节骨关节炎(HOA)的疾病负担及其变化趋势。方法利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库,对比分析1990—2021年中国、全球及高社会人口指数(SDI)地区HOA年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年(DALY)率(ASDR)。运用Joinpoint回归模型分析疾病负担的时间趋势,并结合年龄、性别深入分析中国HOA疾病负担。同时,采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析影响因素和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来10年中国HOA疾病负担变化趋势。结果1990—2021年中国HOA的ASIR、ASPR和ASDR呈上升趋势[平均年度百分比变化率(AAPC)分别为0.87%、0.82%、0.81%,P<0.001],且其AAPC高于全球和高SDI地区,但2021年中国的ASIR、ASPR和ASDR均低于全球和高SDI地区。2021年中国HOA粗发病率、粗患病率、粗DALY率随年龄增长而上升,发病数在55~59岁年龄段最高,而患病数、DALY在65~69岁年龄段最高。2021年中国男性HOA的ASIR、ASPR和ASDR分别是女性的1.25、1.24、1.25倍。1990—2021年中国HOA发病率变化受年龄、时期和出生队列影响。与2021年相比,预计到2035年,HOA新发病例数将增加37.78%,60岁及以上人群发病人数将显著增加。结论1990—2021年中国HOA疾病负担持续上升,需加强防控,重点关注男性、高BMI和中老年人群。Objective To analyze the disease burden of hip osteoarthritis(HOA)and its changing trends in China from 1990 to 2021.Methods Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),and age-standardized disability adjusted life years(DALY)rate(ASDR)of HOA were compared and analyzed in China,globally,and in regions with high sociodemographic index(SDI)from 1990 to 2021.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden,and age and gender were combined to deeply analyze the disease burden of HOA in China.Meanwhile,the age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the influencing factors and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the trend of China’s HOA disease burden in the next 10 years.Results The ASIR,ASPR,and ASDR of HOA in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2021[average annual percentage change(AAPC)were 0.87%,0.82%,and 0.81%,respectively,P<0.001],and their AAPCs were higher than those of the global and high SDI regions,but in 2021,the ASIR,ASPR,and ASDR of China were lower than those of the global and high SDI regions.Crude incidence,crude prevalence,and crude DALY rate in Chinese HOA increased with age,with the highest number of incidence in the 55-59 age group and the highest number of prevalence,DALY,in the 65-69 age group.In 2021,the ASIR,ASPR and ASDR of HOA in Chinese males were 1.25,1.24 and 1.25 times higher than those in females.Changes in the incidence of HOA in China from 1990 to 2021 were influenced by age,period,and birth cohort.Compared with 2021,new cases of HOA are expected to increase by 37.78%by 2035,and the number of incidence cases in people aged 60 years and above will increase significantly.Conclusion The disease burden of HOA in China continued to rise from 1990 to 2021,and prevention and control need to be strengthened,with a focus on men,high BMI,and middle-aged and older populations.

关 键 词：髋关节骨关节炎(HOA) 疾病负担 变化趋势 中国 

分 类 号：R684.347[医药卫生—骨科学]