谋势:美国遏华战略中的少边部署与中国应对  

Shaping Favorable Strategic Posture:The U.S.Minilateral Deployments and China's Responses

作　　者：李开盛 李翊馨 LI Kaisheng;LI Yixin(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院,上海200233

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2025年第2期26-37,共12页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大专项。

摘　　要：自21世纪第二个十年后半期以来,美国纠集特定盟伴组建针对中国的少边机制,成为其遏华战略布局中的重要组成部分。作为美国政府超越党派的重要遏华战略选择,这一努力在拜登政府时期达到高潮,并很可能在特朗普第二个任期内继续推进。其主要原因在于:这些机制既满足了美国牵制甚至打压中国的战略需求,又能通过盟伴分担政策成本,并降低美国被牵连的风险。因此,在既有同盟体系和多边主义框架难以充分遏制中国的情况下,这种少边机制成为美国的重要政策选项。美国不仅可以利用这些少边机制挑动其他国家在南海等议题或事件中损害中国的主权与安全利益,更重要的是,通过这种结构性布局,美国正试图在安全、权力与制度等层面塑造对华不利的博弈态势。谋势历来是中国在战略思维上的特点,中国在政策层面也应该进一步强化谋势的能力,特别是要利用特朗普第二任期内全球与地区层面的国际局势变化,把握好与周边国家,特别是东亚国家在地区合作上的共同利益和政策取向,以开放的多边主义削弱美国少边部署的存在基础,最终塑造于我有利的博弈态势。Since the latter half of the second decade of the 21st century,the United States has increasingly organized minilateral mechanisms aimed at China as a key component of its containment strategy.This approach,transcending party lines as a bipartisan strategic choice,reached its zenith during the Biden administration and was anticipated to continue into the second Trump term.The primary rationale behind this strategy lies in the dual functionality of these mechanisms.They not only serve the American strategic imperative to constrain and suppress China’s influence,and also facilitate the costsharing with allies and partnerships and reduce the entrapment risks for the U.S.This strategy has become a crucial policy option when the existing alliance systems and multilateral frameworks fall short in effectively containing China.The U.S.leverages these minilateral mechanisms to provoke other countries into the issues—such as the South China Sea—that harm China’s sovereignty and security interests.More importantly,by using these structural arrangements,it seeks to shape a strategic posture unfavorable to China in terms of security,power,and institutional influence.China should therefore intensify its efforts in shaping the favorable strategic posture in the competition with the U.S.and undermining the foundational basis of the American minilateral deployments by insisting an approach of open multilateralism.For achieving this,it is necessary to leverage the global and regional shifts in the international order during the second Trump term and the shared interests between China and its neighboring countries in advancing regional cooperation.

关 键 词：谋势 中美关系 少边主义 多边主义 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]