《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》实施进展、效果评估与前景展望  

Implementation Progress,Effectiveness Assessment and Prospects of the CPTPP

作　　者：苏庆义[1] 姜炀 SU Qingyi;JIANG Yang(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院大学,北京102488

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2025年第2期56-70,共15页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“美国产业链供应链全球布局调整的机制、趋势与影响研究”(24&ZD056)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)自2018年签署生效以来,历经八次委员会会议及多次工作组会议,制度趋于成熟。英国近期的成功加入更反映了其在亚太地区之外不断上升的影响力。尽管批准时间、经济发展水平、实施力度各异,CPTPP缔约方之间的总体贸易水平得到快速增长,部分国家的外商直接投资规模增长显著,各缔约方经济增速也相对疫情前有所提升。展望前景,数字经济、气候变化将持续成为协定的重点议题,各缔约方也将保持积极的扩容意愿,但美国重返CPTPP的可能性不大。作为亚太经济一体化的两大路径,CPTPP与《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)将共同增强亚太地区产业链供应链韧性。中国虽早已递交加入申请,但面临规则和政治两方面障碍;另一方面,中国在全球贸易中的重要地位也会使CPTPP考虑中国的缺席对协定成为全球自由贸易协定标杆的影响。Since its signing and entry into force in 2018,the Comprehensive and Progressive TransPacific Partnership(CPTPP)has established a robust institutional framework through eight committee meetings and numerous working group meetings.This study systematically examines the CPTPP's developmental trajectory,implementation efficacy,and prospects,offering a comprehensive assessment of this landmark trade agreement.The institutionalizing process of CPTPP has achieved significant milestones through annual committee meetings,sectoral consultations,and specialized working group sessions.These mechanisms have enabled member states to establish comprehensive procedural rules,operational frameworks,and strategic development plans.Notably,the accession process for the United Kingdom has prompted substantial refinements to the agreement's admission criteria and procedural mechanisms.Empirical evidence demonstrates CPTPP's remarkable resilience in the face of global pandemic challenges and antiglobalization trends.The agreement has substantially enhanced member states'capacity to mitigate economic volatility and sustain growth trajectories.Key achievements include expanded trade volumes,optimized trade structures,and sustained growth in domestic investment and overall economic performance.Looking forward,the CPTPP is poised to address emerging challenges in digital economy governance and climate change mitigation.Its synergistic relationship with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is expected to strengthen supply chain resilience across the AsiaPacific region.While membership expansion remains an active agenda,geopolitical considerations suggest limited prospects for U.S.reengagement and ongoing challenges for China's potential accession due to substantive rule alignment and political considerations.

关 键 词：《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》 高标准国际经贸规则 数字经济 国有企业 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] F744[政治法律—政治学]