未来气候变化情景下中国植物物种地理分布变化趋势研究进展  

Research progress on the changing trends in geographical distributions of plant species under future climate change scenarios in China

作　　者：王思雨[1] 吴建国[1] WANG Siyu;WU Jianguo(Key Laboratory of Regional Ecological Process and Function Assessment for Environmental Protection,Institute of Ecology,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院生态所,环境保护区域生态过程与功能评估重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《广西植物》2025年第3期500-516,共17页Guihaia

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802304);国家基础资源调查专项(2019FY101606)。

摘　　要：分析气候变化对植物地理分布的影响,对生物多样性保护适应气候变化有重要意义。该文基于2010年以来发表的220篇文献,总结分析了未来气候变化情景下中国植物地理分布变化的研究进展,讨论了存在的问题和不足,展望了未来的研究方向。结果表明:(1)自2010年以来,我国学者对未来气候变化情景下中国1058种植物中地理分布变化特征进行了分析,其中地理分布变化信息明确的仅有636种。(2)未来气候变化情景下,518种被子植物中195种地理分布范围呈增加趋势,245种呈减少趋势;57种裸子植物中12种地理分布范围呈增加趋势,38种呈减少趋势;1种蕨类植物分布范围呈增加趋势;60种苔藓植物中7种地理分布范围呈增加趋势,53种呈减少趋势;其他植物的地理分布范围表现为不一致或缺少变化信息。(3)未来气候变化情景下,植物地理分布格局明确呈现向西北、华北或东北迁移的有137种,同时向高纬度和高海拔迁移的有19种,仅向高纬度迁移的有125种,其他植物表现为不同方向迁移或缺乏迁移信息。(4)未来气候变化情景下,在概率大于0.6时,约有32种被子植物、42种裸子植物和48种苔藓植物地理分布范围将面临完全丧失的风险,而不考虑概率下约有57种被子植物和96种裸子植物地理分布范围将面临丧失的风险。研究不足包括①研究植物种数较少;②选择气候变化情景和模型单一;③缺乏对气候和其他环境因子综合考虑与多模型的对比研究;④缺少系统分析未来气候变化情景下植物地理分布范围丧失风险等。综上认为,未来在丰富研究植物种数的同时,需要加强利用多种气候变化情景,发展适合中国区域特色的生态位模型,开展多种气候变化情景下不同植物地理分布变化的对比研究,并且也需要加强气候变化情景下植物地理分布范围丧失风险的分析等。Identifying the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of plant species is crucial for biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.Here,220 literatures published since 2010 on geographical distribution changes of plant species under future climate change scenarios in China were collected,and the research progress on the changes in geographical distribution ranges of plant species under future climate change scenarios was reviewed,problems and deficiencies were discussed,and future research directions were suggested.The results were as follows:(1)Since 2010,geographical distribution changes of 1058 plant species in China under future climate change scenarios were analyzed,in which there were only 636 plant species with clear information of changes in their geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios.(2)Among 518 species of angiosperms,195 species showed an increasing trend and 245 species showed a decreasing trend for geographical distribution ranges under the future climate change scenarios;among 57 gymnosperms,12 species showed an increasing trend and 38 species showed a decreasing trend for geographical distribution ranges;the distribution range of 1 species of pteridophyte showed an increasing trend;among the 60 species of bryophytes,53 species showed a decreasing trend and 7 species showed an increasing trend for geographical distribution ranges;the geographical distribution ranges of other plant species were characterized by inconsistent changes or lack of change information.(3)Under the climate change scenarios,137 plant species would migrate to the Northwest,North China,and Northeast regions,19 species would migrate to high latitude and high altitude regions,125 species would move only to high latitude,and other plant species showed different directions or local migration information.(4)Under the future climate change scenarios,about 32 angiosperms,42 gymnosperms and 48 bryophytes species would face the risk of total loss of their geographical distribu

关 键 词：气候变化 植物物种 地理分布 影响 风险 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]