中国与东北亚国家出口贸易的影响因素及潜力研究  

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Potential of China’s Export Trade with Northeast Asian Countries

作　　者：张巨勇 杜昭凝 ZHANG Juyong;DU Zhaoning(School of International Business,Dalian Minzu University,Dalian Liaoning 116650,China)

机构地区：[1]大连民族大学国际商学院,辽宁大连116650

出　　处：《大连民族大学学报》2025年第2期156-161,共6页Journal of Dalian Minzu University

基　　金：辽宁省咨询委员会项目“关于支持大连金普新区实施更加积极主动对外开放战略的对策研究”阶段性成果。

摘　　要：东北亚作为世界三大经济中心,其影响力重大。利用2014-2023年的面板数据,通过构建贸易引力模型对中国与其他东北亚成员国之间的出口贸易影响因素与贸易潜力进行实证分析。指出中国与东北亚进口国的GDP和加入RCEP协定对中国出口均有正面效应;而中国与东北亚进口国人口数量、距离和中国与东北亚进口国之间的人均GDP差值对中国出口则是起到了阻碍作用。阐述中国与成员国之间贸易联系密切,但与各国的双边贸易均属于潜力开拓型,有待进一步挖掘更多的贸易机会,从而在推动双方经济发展的同时促进区域经济一体化。Northeast Asiaisone of the world’s three major economic centers,it has significant influence.This studies applies panel data from 2014 to 2023,the empirical analysis is conducted on the influencing factors and trade potential of export trade between China and other Northeast Asian member countries by constructing a trade gravity model.The study results pointing out that the GDP of China and importing countries in Northeast Asia,as well as its accession to the RCEP agreement,have positive effects on China’s exports;However,the population size and distance between China and the importing countries in Northeast Asia,and the per capita GDP difference between China and the importing countries in Northeast Asia have hindered China’s exports.Elaborate on the close trade ties between China and its member countries,but bilateral trade with other countries is of a potential exploration type;and further exploration of more trade opportunities is needed to promote regional economic integration while promoting economic development on both sides.

关 键 词：东北亚 出口贸易 RCEP协定 引力模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]