中国海洋产业链韧性水平测度与时空演变研究  

Resilience Measurement and Spatiotemporal Evolution of China's Marine Industry Chain

作　　者：叶芳 孙晓东 YE Fang;SUN Xiaodong(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学经济与管理学院,浙江舟山316022

出　　处：《浙江海洋大学学报(人文科学版)》2025年第1期14-24,共11页Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University(Humanities Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“习近平总书记关于建设海洋强国重要论述引领地方海洋治理效能提升研究(编号:24BKS108)”;浙江省高校重大人文社会科学攻关计划青年重点项目“习近平总书记关于经略海洋重要论述及其原创性贡献研究”(编号:2023QN086)。

摘　　要：文章从抵御能力、恢复能力、创新能力、可持续能力四个维度构建评价指标体系,采用熵值法测度2008—2022年中国沿海省域海洋产业链韧性水平,并采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计分析了海洋产业链韧性水平的空间差异。结果表明:(1)2008—2022年全国整体以及北部、东部、南部三大海洋经济圈海洋产业链韧性水平整体呈上升态势,东部海洋经济圈海洋产业链韧性高于北部和南部;分子系统看,海洋产业链恢复能力高于创新能力、抵御能力和可持续能力。(2)基尼系数测度表明,考察期内中国海洋产业链韧性水平整体和区域均波动较大且呈现下降态势,区域内差距是造成海洋产业链韧性水平差距的主要原因。(3)核密度估计表明,考察期内全国沿海整体及三大海洋经济圈的海洋产业链韧性水平均呈上升趋势;Moran's I指数表明,考察期内我国海洋产业链韧性水平的空间集聚性整体在不断减弱。This study constructs an evaluation index system encompassing four dimensions:resistance,resilience,innovation,and sustainability.The entropy weight method is used to measure the resilience of China's marine industry chain across coastal provinces from 2008 to 2022.The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are used to analyze the spatial disparities.The results show that:(1) From 2008 to 2022,both national and regional(Northern,Eastern,Southern Marine Economic Circles) marine industry chain resilience exhibited upward trajectories,with the Eastern marine economic circle outperforming the Northern and Southern counterparts.At the subsystem level,recovery capacity surpassed those of innovation,resilience,and sustainability.(2) The Gini coefficient measurement shows significant volatility and a declining trend in resilience disparities across regions,and intra-regional disparities are identified as the primary contributor to resilience inequality.(3) Kernel density estimation indicates a nationwide resilience enhancement trend from 2008 to 2022.However,the overall spatial agglomeration of resilience weakened progressively over the same period,as evidenced by Moran's I index.

关 键 词：海洋产业链韧性 区域差异 时空演变 影响因素 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学]