人口、技术与产业变迁的治理难题与出路  

Governance Dilemmas and Ways Out of Demographic,Technological and Industrial Change

作　　者：张志鹏[1] ZHANG Zhipeng(School of Business,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167 China)

机构地区：[1]南京工程学院商学院,江苏南京211167

出　　处：《南京工程学院学报(社会科学版)》2024年第4期31-37,共7页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Technology:Social Science Edition

基　　金：中央财政支持地方高校改革发展资金人文社会科学研究专项项目“技术赋能社会治理智库”。

摘　　要：人口下降、技术替代和产业转移带来了全球治理、产业治理与社会治理的三重难题。经典理论从经济或利益因素、文化因素、制度政策因素的视角对人口、技术和产业长周期变化做出了解释。在制造业全球化背景下,面对人口—技术—产业的互动演变,选择不同的治理方式将会导致不同的治理后果。为了实现善治,本文构建了促进就业的治理新路径。这个治理路径的创新之处在于:国家可以通过开展社区服务来解决就业难题,提升当地的收入水平;通过服务支持社区中的另一部分人参与到制造业的特定环节以及农业生产中,进而参与全球制造价值链和国际贸易体系。要实现这一治理路径,应鼓励多元主体提供社区服务、完善支持社区服务的制度建设、在全社会传播新的职业观念。The decline in population,technological substitution,and industrial transfer have collectively engendered a triple challenge within the realms of global governance,industrial governance,and social governance.Classical theories have elucidated the long-cycle changes in population,technology,and industry from the perspectives of economic or interest factors,cultural factors,and institutional policy factors.In the context of manufacturing globalization,the interaction and evolution among population,technology and industry present a myriad of governance options that may culminate in two potential outcomes.To attain effective governance outcomes,this paper introduces a novel integrated governance framework to promot employment.The innovation of this governance approach resides in its capacity for each country to tackle employment challenges through community services,simultaneously elevating local income levels.Additionally,it promotes the involvement of another segment of the community in specific facets of manufacturing and agricultural production,thereby facilitating their incorporation into the global manufacturing value chain and international trade system.To realize this governance pathway effectively requires encouraging diverse stakeholders to provide community services,improving institutional frameworks that support these services and promoting innovative occupational concepts throughout society.

关 键 词：人口下降 人工智能 产业变迁 社会治理 社区服务 

分 类 号：D669.3[政治法律—政治学]