过度劳动如何影响青年就业稳定性——基于对上海新业态领域的观察  

How Overwork Affects the Employment Stability of Young People--Based on Observations of the New Forms of Employment in Shanghai

作　　者：刘彩云 高向东[2] Liu Caiyun;Gao Xiangdong(Shanghai Institute of Human Resources and Social Security Sciences,Shanghai 200070;School of Public Management,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062)

机构地区：[1]上海市人力资源和社会保障科学研究所,上海200070 [2]华东师范大学公共管理学院,上海200062

出　　处：《上海经济》2025年第1期31-47,共17页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：2024年全国教育科学规划专项课题,人工智能发展对大学生就业的影响研究(ZKE240460)。

摘　　要：新业态从业青年日益成为劳动力市场的重要组成部分,但该群体的过度劳动和就业不稳定问题较为突出。文章聚焦新业态从业青年过度劳动对其就业稳定性的影响,通过基准回归模型和异质性分析发现:过度劳动显著削弱了新业态从业青年的就业稳定性,平均降低16.15%;过度劳动对就业稳定性的削弱作用存在就业形势预期和工资变化预期的异质性,更乐观的就业形势预期和工资变化预期有助于缓解过度劳动对就业稳定性的削弱程度。为此,应聚焦法规制度体系完善、平台算法与定价规则优化、优质就业机会挖掘、基本劳动权益保护、分险种梯度化保障、青年收入预期引导、公共服务供给和职业技能培训体系等方面创新政策举措,降低过度劳动的负面影响,提升新业态从业青年的就业质量。Young people working in new forms of employment are increasingly becoming an important part of the labor market,however,the phenomenon of overwork and the problem of unstable employment are prominent in this group.The article focuses on the impact of overwork on the employment stability of young people in new employment forms,through the benchmark regression model and heterogeneity analysis,the following findings are made:Overwork significantly weakens the employment stability of young people working in new employment forms,with an average reduction of 16.15%.The impact of overwork on employment stability is heterogeneous with respect to employment situation expectations and wage change expectations,with more optimistic expectations in both helping to mitigate the extent to which overwork undermines employment stability.Therefore,innovative policy measures should be focused on improving the regulatory system,optimizing platform algorithms and pricing rules,exploring high-quality employment opportunities,protecting basic labor rights and interests,providing gradient protection for different types of insurance,guiding youth income expectations,providing public services,and establishing vocational skills training systems,reduce the negative impact of overwork and improve the quality of employment of young people engaged in new economic sectors.

关 键 词：过度劳动 就业稳定性 收入水平 个人预期 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]