美国兰德公司遴选颠覆性技术的新型方法及借鉴启示  

The Method of Selecting Disruptive Technologies by RAND Corporation and Its Inspiration and Suggestions

作　　者：崔怡雯 吴毅华 刘巧虹 赵筱媛[1] 苏成[1] CUI Yiwen;WU Yihua;LIU Qiaohong;ZHAO Xiaoyuan;SU Cheng(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《情报工程》2024年第6期3-13,共11页Technology Intelligence Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“面向颠覆性技术早期识别的弱信号监测体系设计与应用研究”(22BTQ067);中国科学技术信息研究所创新研究基金青年项目“面向中国式现代化建设的颠覆性技术监测体系研究——基于行动者网络理论”(QN2024-19)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]探索兰德公司为支撑美国政府而研制的新型颠覆性技术评估遴选方法,以期为我国在目标约束下的颠覆性技术遴选评估工作提供理论与实践参考。[方法/过程]以兰德公司为美国政府制定的新型遴选评估方法为研究对象,对其遴选评估颠覆性技术的研究过程进行分析,总结归纳该新型方法的步骤、流程与创新之处。[结果/结论]兰德公司对于颠覆性技术遴选的研究相对较为成熟,分析其相关做法与创新之处,对于优化我国颠覆性技术遴选评估方案,完善我国颠覆性技术的评选、资助方式以及实现国家长期科技创新战略布局具有重要意义。[Objective/Significance]This paper aims to explore the methodology of the new disruptive technology assessment and selection developed by the RAND Corporation to support the US government,with a view to providing theoretical and practical references for China’s selection and assessment of disruptive technologies within the constraints of the target.[Methods/Processes]This paper takes the new selection and evaluation methodology developed by RAND for the U.S.government as the research object,analyses its research process of selecting and evaluating disruptive technologies,and summarizes the steps,processes and innovations of the new methodology.[Results/Conclusions]RAND’s research on the selection of disruptive technologies is relatively mature,and the analysis of its relevant practices and innovations is of great significance for optimising China’s selection and assessment of disruptive technologies,as well as improving China’s disruptive technology selection and funding methods,and realising the layout of the country’s long-term scientific and technological innovation strategy.

关 键 词：兰德公司 颠覆性技术 颠覆性技术遴选 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]