基于系统分解与集成的体系博弈预期评估  

Expectation evaluation of system of systems gaming based on system decomposition and integration

作　　者：王正明[1] 刘吉英 WANG Zhengming;LIU Jiying(College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;College of Science,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410072,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学前沿交叉学科学院,湖南长沙410073 [2]国防科技大学理学院,湖南长沙410072

出　　处：《国防科技》2025年第1期1-9,共9页National Defense Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0713504)。

摘　　要：基于系统分解与集成技术,从婚恋模型出发,研究体系博弈,解读战略防御、相持、反攻,解读军事行动的先后顺序,得到直观、符合指挥员思维习惯与数学逻辑的结论。研究表明,许多复杂系统可以表示为简单的一维问题,用一元正态分布或成败型试验模型分析解读。该方法可以用于解读部分多智能体博弈的结果。研究成果为分析评估国家安全、地区冲突等复杂系统的预期,提供了一种理论依据、建模方法和数据分析技术。Based on the system decomposition and integration technology,this paper starts from the marriage model,the system of systems gaming is studied,strategic defense,stalemate,counterattack,and the sequence of military operations are interpreted.Intuitive conclusions that conform to the commander’s thinking habits can be obtained.Further research shows that many complex systems can be expressed as simple one-dimensional problems,analyzed and interpreted using univariate normal distribution or success-failure test models.The method in this paper can be used to interpret the results of some multi-agent games.Theoretical basis,modeling method,and data analysis technology for analyzing and evaluating the expectations of complex systems such as national security and regional conflicts is provided.

关 键 词：系统分解 系统集成 体系博弈 科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德表示定理 正态分布 

分 类 号：E917[军事] N03[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]