税收安排与地方债务压力——来自债券利息收入税率调整的证据  

Taxation Arrangements and Local Government Debt Pressure:Evidence from the Adjustment of Bond Interest Income Tax Rate

作　　者：周佳音 陆毅[2] 王伟同 ZHOU Jiayin;LU Yi;WANG Weitong(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,116025 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,100083

出　　处：《经济研究》2025年第1期22-38,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72403035);国家自然科学基金重点项目(72133001)的阶段性成果;国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD062)。

摘　　要：隐性债务规模扩张带来的财政风险和付息压力成为阻碍中国经济可持续发展的主要症结,以债务置换为代表的化债工作是下一阶段的财政要务。在债券类型转换过程中,不同债券税收安排的差异将有可能对债务融资成本产生间接影响。本文基于债券利息收入税率调整的准自然实验,运用双重差分法对税收安排与地方政府融资成本的因果关系进行识别。实证结果发现,债券利息收入税率的上升会导致地方政府债务融资成本的上涨,其弹性系数约为0.4185。利用弹性系数对债务置换等减税情景进行反事实估算,发现降低债券利息收入税率的“减支效应”大于“减收效应”,因而有助于部分缓解地方债务压力,并提高国家财政整体福利。本项研究为防范化解地方债务风险提供了一种更为市场化的新思路。For a long time,debt financing has been a crucial tool for local governments to alleviate fiscal pressures,achieve development goals,and promote economic growth.However,the financial risks and interest payment pressures resulting from the expansion of implicit debt scales have gradually become major obstacles to the sustained development of China's economy.In recent years,China has continuously upgraded its policies to prevent and resolve local government debt risks.In 2024,several important meetings proposed strategic measures such as implementing a more proactive fiscal policy,planning to increase the debt limit by a large margin in one lump sum to replace existing implicit local government debts,and intensifying efforts to support local governments in resolving debt risks.In the process of gradually replacing implicit debts with standardized local government bonds,the inherent interest rate difference between the two types of bonds will alleviate the interest payment pressure on local governments.However,what is easily overlooked is that there are also differences in the applicable tax rates for interest income between them,which may further lead to a decrease in coupon rates.Against this backdrop,this paper takes the differences in tax arrangements between local government bonds and urban investment bonds as the starting point to observe whether adjustments to the tax rate on bond interest income will im-pact the financing costs of local government debt.This paper argues that urban investment bonds and local government bonds are somewhat comparable,with the value-added tax(VAT)Reform only affecting the tax rate on interest income from urban investment bonds,while the tax rate on interest income from local government bonds remaining unchanged before and after the reform,thereby forming a quasi-natural experiment in the field of local debt taxation.Based on this,this paper constructs a difference-in-differences empirical framework to identify the causal relationship between tax arrangements and local government

关 键 词：地方债 税收安排 债务压力 融资成本 弹性系数 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F812.42