美国电商税法与中国跨境电商出口及其税收负担  

The Impact of U.S. E-commerce Tax Laws and China's Cross-border E-commerce Exports and Associated Tax Burdens

作　　者：马述忠[1] 杜特 房超 MA Shuzhong;DU Te;FANG Chao(China Academy of Digital Trade,Zhejiang University;School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University;Research Centre for Digital Innovation and Global Value Chain Upgrading,Zhejiang Gongshang University)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院,310058 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院,310018 [3]浙江工商大学数字创新与全球价值链升级研究中心,310018

出　　处：《经济研究》2025年第1期91-107,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD084)、国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJL056)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：全球范围内电子商务的快速发展在很大程度上得益于其相对于传统商务活动的税收优势,而随着各国对于线上税收损失的日益重视,“线上避税天堂”很可能会因此消失。本文以美国电商税法的两轮立法为准自然实验,基于2017—2020年中国向美国跨境电商出口的州—月度面板数据,采用多时点双重差分方法,实证考察了税收政策变动对跨境电商出口的影响。研究结果表明:第一,规定由卖家自行缴税的《经济关联法》对跨境电商出口没有显著影响,规定由平台代收代缴销售税的《电商平台促进法》的实施则使得中国向美国的跨境电商出口额平均下降了7.31%,弹性约为-1.129,消费者在贸易中的税收敏感度远低于企业;第二,《电商平台促进法》的实施主要影响跨境电商出口数量而非出口价格,即税收负担主要由美国消费者承担;第三,异质性分析表明,政策执行力度越强、渠道和产品越容易被替代,以及消费者收入水平越低时,《电商平台促进法》的政策影响越大。本文研究拓展了数字经济时代贸易税收领域的研究边界,为中国提升跨境电商税收政策的科学性以及促进跨境电商贸易自由化、便利化发展提供了理论支持与政策参考。Over the past decade, China's cross-border e-commerce sector has grown rapidly, emerging as a key driver of export growth. According to China's customs statistics, cross-border e-commerce exports from China totaled CNY 1.83trillion in 2023, accounting for 7.7% of China's total goods exports. This expansion is closely linked to tax policies, as many countries exempt small-value online transactions from taxation, effectively creating an online tax haven. However,the continued growth of cross-border e-commerce has prompted many countries to introduce measures aimed at closing tax loopholes, posing substantial challenges to China's cross-border e-commerce development.Against this backdrop, this paper leverages the U.S. e-commerce sales tax reforms as a natural experiment to evaluate the effects of tax policy changes on cross-border e-commerce exports. In 2018, the South Dakota state government sued the large home goods e-commerce platform Wayfair for failing to collect sales tax, ultimately prevailing in the case.Following this ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed that states have the authority to mandate sales tax collection from out-of-state and foreign businesses with a sufficient “economic nexus,” even in the absence of a physical presence. As a result, states began gradually adopting policies requiring e-commerce businesses to collect sales taxes.This paper employs a staggered difference-in-differences(DID) model with a state-month-level panel dataset of China's cross-border e-commerce exports to the U.S. from 2017 to 2020 for empirical analysis. The results are as follows.First, the economic nexus laws, which require sellers to pay taxes independently, do not significantly affect cross-border ecommerce exports. In contrast, the implementation of the marketplace facilitator laws, which mandate platforms to collect and remit sales tax, leads to an average reduction of 7.31% in China's cross-border e-commerce exports to the U.S. The estimated trade elasticity is approximately-1.129, indicating that consumer

关 键 词：跨境电商 税收政策 贸易弹性 价格传递 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62[政治法律—法学] F812.42D971.2