金融制裁是否会削弱美元霸权?——一个基于储备安全成本的分析框架  

Will Financial Sanctions Undermine Dollar Hegemony?An Analytical Framework Based on Reserve Security Costs

作　　者：宋爽[1] 吕静 熊爱宗[1] Song Shuang;Lyu Jing;Xiong Aizong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《当代亚太》2025年第1期32-60,170,共30页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划(项目编号:DF2023YS42)的资助。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突爆发后,金融制裁对美元霸权的影响在全球范围内引发争论。文章从储备安全成本视角构建了一个金融制裁影响美元霸权的分析框架,并借助模型进行了理论推演。模型阐释了美国三项典型金融制裁措施给受制裁国带来储备安全成本并促使其调整国际储备的机制:本国实体被列入SDN清单改变了受制裁国实际交易需求的币种结构、金融机构被禁用SWIFT增加了受制裁国开展国际支付的摩擦、冻结央行外汇储备减少了受制裁国可用的外储规模。这些都将给受制裁国带来储备安全成本,促使其降低国际储备中的美元份额,增加非主导货币的份额。金融制裁还将基于上述机制使潜在受制裁国产生预期储备安全成本,并通过溢出效应作用于美国盟友,从而在长期削弱美元霸权。美国对俄罗斯实施金融制裁的案例,验证了文章提出的金融制裁在全球范围内影响美元霸权的理论机制。In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the impact of financial sanctions on dollar hegemony has emerged as a subject of intensive global debate.This study develops an analytical framework examining this relationship through the lens of reserve security costs,supported by theoretical modeling and empirical validation.The research illuminates how three distinct U.S.sanctions mechanisms generate reserve security costs for targeted countries and catalyze their international reserve portfolio adjustments.First,the designation of entities to the Specially Designated Nationals(SDN)list restructures currency demand patterns.Second,the exclusion of financial institutions from SWIFT elevates international payment friction costs.Third,the freezing of central bank foreign exchange holdings diminishes deployable reservevolumes.These mechanisms collectively compel targeted countries to reduce dollar-denominated reserves while increasing allocations to non-dominant currencies.Furthermore,the study demonstrates how financial sanctions generate anticipated reserve security costs for potential target countries and produce spillover effects to U.S.allies,contributing to the long-term erosion of dollar hegemony.The theoretical mechanisms proposed in this analysis find substantial empirical support through examination of U.S.financial sanctions against Russia,validating the framework's explanation of how sanctions influence dollar hegemony on a global scale.

关 键 词：金融制裁 美元霸权 安全成本 国际储备 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]