中美竞争背景下南海争端国对华混合策略的差异化选择机制研究  

A Comparative Analysis of Hybrid Strategy Differentiation among South China Sea Claimant Countries under Sino-U.S.Strategic Competition

作　　者：李大陆 Li Dalu

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2025年第1期119-145,171,172,共29页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“南海争端国国内政治结构变迁与对华‘对冲’行为研究”(项目批准号:19CGJ013)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在中美竞争背景下,南海争端国的对华政策对于地区安全和稳定具有重要影响。借鉴对冲研究,基于限制与适应、拒止与缓和两组政策之间的关系,文章将越南、菲律宾和马来西亚三个主要南海争端国的对华混合策略区分为“对抗主导型”“合作主导型”与“均衡型”三种形态。执政者的混合策略选择受到体系及单元压力以及政权集中度变化的影响。争端国领导人在对美安全合作中是否损失政治自主性,反映体系压力的变化。精英政治代表性的差异通过影响合法化战略,塑造精英的对华政策偏好,影响单元层次压力。政权集中度影响执政者协调体系与单元压力的方式。当两种压力趋同时,政权集中度的干预作用不明显,执政者依据二者的同向叠加作用进行政策选择;基于政治自主性、精英政治代表性及政权集中度的作用,越南和马来西亚两国分别实施均衡型与合作主导型的混合策略,菲律宾的混合策略则经历了从均衡型到对抗主导型的变化。辨析南海争端国混合策略的形成机制,有助于揭示其对华政策的长期趋势,研判中美竞争背景下南海地区安全的新态势。Within the context of Sino-U.S.strategic competition,the policy orientations of South China Sea claimant countries toward China significantly influence regional security and stability.Drawing upon hedging theory and examining the relationships between alliance-constraint dynamics and adaptation-resistance-accommodation policy spectrums,this study categorizes the hybrid strategies of three principal claimant countries-Vietnam,the Philippines,and Malaysia-into confrontation-dominant,cooperation-dominant,and balanced approaches.The research demonstrates how strategic choices of leadership are shaped by the interplay of systemic pressures,unit-level dynamics,and variations in regime concentration.Systemic pressure manifests through the potential loss of political autonomy in U.S.security cooperation arrangements,while unit-level pressure is reflected in how differences in elite political representation influence policy preferences toward China through legitimation strategies.Regime concentration mediates these pressures distinctively:when systemic and unit-level pressures align,regime concentration's mediating effect is minimal,with policy choices reflecting their cumulative influence.However,when these pressures diverge,highly concentrateddregimes tend to prioritize systemic considerations,while less concentrated regimes favor unit-level imperatives in their strategic calculations.This theoretical framework explains Vietnam's balanced hybrid strategy,Malaysia's cooperation-dominant approach,and the Philippines'transition from a balanced to a confrontation-dominant posture.Understanding these mechanism variations provides crucial insights for anticipating claimant countries'long-termpolicy trajectories and evaluating emerging regional security dynamicsamid intensifying Sino-U.S.competition.

关 键 词：政治自主性 精英偏好 政权集中度 南海争端 混合策略 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]