我国档案产业市场需求调查研究  

Research on market demand of archives industry in China

作　　者：徐拥军[1,2] 唐懿飞 陈晓婷 Xu Yongjun;Tang Yifei;Chen Xiaoting

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学信息资源管理学院 [2]中国人民大学档案事业发展研究中心

出　　处：《浙江档案》2025年第2期14-19,共6页Zhejiang Archives

基　　金：2024年国家档案局科技项目计划重点项目“‘十五五’时期全国档案事业高质量发展研究(2024K20502)”研究成果之一。

摘　　要：近年来,档案产业成为档案事业发展的重要支撑力。本文采集千里马招标平台数据,并辅以市场规模估算法、结构化访谈法、基于大模型的文本分类法、问卷调查法等,分析2020—2024年党政机关和企事业单位的档案服务招标项目数据。调查发现,档案产业市场规模估计在每年1905亿—2938亿元之间,未来一段时间可能面临一定的市场需求收缩;档案服务项目招标预算金额普遍偏低,且呈现预算总额下降但项目数增长的趋势;档案服务项目覆盖各类型单位,政府尤其是省级档案馆和经济发达地区市级档案馆的需求大;对档案整理、档案数字化等基础性服务的需求强烈,对档案管理咨询、档案软件研发等高附加值服务的需求较低且集中于特定客户;档案产业市场需求深受当地政府发展战略和数字化转型影响。研究发现,我国档案产业市场存在需求刚性强化、企业发展路径受阻,需求预算紧缩、服务质量可能下降、地区分布不均、供需匹配有待完善等问题。建议未来档案产业发展以市场多元化策略应对需求波动,以差异化竞争策略应对市场紧缩,以资源配置策略适配需求地域分布。In recent years,the archives industry has become an important support for the development of the archives industry.This paper collects data from the Qianlima bidding platform,and uses market size estimation,structured interview,large modelbased text classification,and questionnaire survey methods to analyze the data of archives service bidding projects of party and government agencies and enterprises and institutions from 2020to 2024.The survey found that the market size of the archives industry is estimated to be between 190.5 billion and 293.8billion yuan per year,and it may face a certain market demand contraction in the future;the budget amount of the archives service project bidding is generally low,and there is a trend of a decrease in the total budget but an increase in the number of projects;the archives service projects cover all types of units,and the government,especially provincial archives and municipal archives in economically developed areas,has a large demand;there is a strong demand for basic services such as archives arrangement and archives digitization,and the demand for high value-added services such as archives management consulting and archives software development is low and concentrated on specific customers;the market demand for the archives industry is deeply affected by the local government's development strategy and digital transformation.The analysis found that the market demand for the archives industry has problems such as demand rigidity strengthening,blocked enterprise development paths,tight demand budgets,possible decline in service quality,uneven regional distribution,and the need to improve the matching of supply and demand.Therefore,it is suggested that the future development of the archives industry should adopt a market diversification strategy to cope with demand fluctuations,a differentiated competition strategy to cope with market tightening,and a resource allocation strategy to adapt to the regional distribution of demand.

关 键 词：档案产业 市场需求 档案服务企业 

分 类 号：G270[文化科学—档案学]