“量价背离”探幽:经济转型中的得失抉择与政策权衡  

Volume-Price Divergence:Choices and Policy Balances in Economic Transition

作　　者：伍戈 俞涛 曹海巍 高童 WU Ge;YU Tao;CAO Haiwei;GAO Tong(Chang Jiang Securities)

机构地区：[1]长江证券

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2025年第3期81-86,共6页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：量价背离表现为生产端产量增长与价格低迷并存,微观层面企业通过降价维持生产,宏观层面则体现为实际GDP增长与物价指数的背离。本文从需求收缩、企业理性决策、技术进步及数字化冲击等多维度剖析其根源,指出企业“以价换量”策略虽维持了生产,但加剧了盈利弱化与库存积压,而技术进步和平台经济发展进一步压低了价格水平。基于历史经验和国际对比,本文认为当前量价背离现象具有阶段性特征,其持续性取决于需求端的实质性改善。文章建议,逆周期政策应超常规发力,兼顾“量”与“价”的平衡,同时需重视技术进步对供需的非对称影响,为经济结构调整提供缓冲。Volume-price divergence manifests itself in the coexistence of output growth and price slump on the production side,with enterprises maintaining production through price cuts on the micro level,and the divergence between real GDP growth and the price index on the macro level.This paper analyzes the root causes from the multidimensional perspectives of demand contraction,rational decision-making of enterprises,technological advancement and digitalization impact,and points out that although enterprises'''price-for-volume''strategy maintains production,it exacerbates profitability weakening and inventory buildup,and technological advancement and the development of the platform economy further depresses the price level.Based on historical experience and international comparisons,this article argues that the current phenomenon of volume-price divergence has a staged character,and its sustainability depends on substantial improvement in the demand side.The article suggests that counter-cyclical policies should be extraordinarily powerful,taking into account the balance between''quantity''and''price'',and at the same time paying attention to the asymmetric impact of technological progress on supply and demand,so as to provide a buffer for economic restructuring.

关 键 词：需求收缩 技术进步 逆周期政策 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]