“上有政策,下有对策”?——中国蓝天保卫战中的地方政府政策调适  

Consistency or Countermeasures?——Local Government Policy Adaptation in Chinas Blue Sky Protection Campaign

作　　者：李延昊 王健慧 徐曼迟 张勤 苏竣[1,2,3] LI Yanhao;WANG Jianhui;XU Manchi;ZHANG Qin;SU Jun

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院 [2]清华大学科教政策研究中心 [3]清华大学智能社会治理研究院

出　　处：《公共管理与政策评论》2025年第2期4-25,共22页Public Administration and Policy Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新群体项目《中国公共政策理论与治理机制研究》(71721002)。

摘　　要：以政策调适为切口,补充对政策执行偏差的理论研究具有重要意义。论文以地级市为研究单元,选取我国的蓝天保卫战为具体情境,通过Heckman样本选择模型和多项逻辑回归模型(Mlogit)定量检验了政治压力、公众参与、工业经济占比、地方政府环境注意力与地级市环境政策调适结果类型之间的关系,揭示出地方政府在实践中展现出“上有政策,下有政策”而后再“下有对策”的可能。研究发现,政治压力与审慎型政策调适负相关,地方政府环境注意力分配与敷衍型政策调适负相关,地方政府环境注意力负向调节政治压力对保守型政策调适的作用,且正向调节公众参与对审慎型政策调适的作用。此外,工业经济占比并未显著稳健地影响政策调适结果,表明其相对于政治因素而言处于靠后的价值排序。论文为大量分析地方政府因地制宜进行政策调适过程的案例研究,提供了关于政策调适实然结果的比较分析,加入了基于正式过程和正式影响因素的讨论,补充了聚焦于地级市政府层面的经验证据支持。Approaching from the perspective of policy adaptation,it is beneficial to supplement the theoretical discussions on deviations in policy implementation.This paper takes prefecturelevel municipalities as the research unit,selects the Blue Sky Protection Campaign in China as the specific context,and quantitatively assesses the relationship between political pressure,public participation,the share of the industrial economy,local governments environmental attention and the types of policy adaptation outcomes in prefecture-level cities through Heckmans sample selection model and multinomial logistic regression(Mlogit).The finding reveals that local governments show the possibility of releasing policy first and implementing countermeasures later when handling with the higher governments policies.The study finds out that political pressure is negatively correlated to prudent environmental policies,while local governments environmental attention is negatively correlates to perfunctory policy adaptation and negatively moderates the impact of political pressure on conservative policy adaptation.Conversely,it positively moderates the effect of public participation on prudent policy adaptation.Additionally,the share of the industrial economy does not significantly or robustly affect the outcome of policy adaptation,indicating its relative lesser significance compared to political factors.This paper provides a comparative analysis of actual policy adaptation outcomes,enriching a large quantity of case studies analyzing local governmentspolicy adaptation processes and discussion based on formal processes and formal influencing factors,and complementing empirical evidence support focusing on the prefectural government level.

关 键 词：政策调适 环境政策 政府注意力 政治压力 公众参与 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]