需求不确定下港航供应链区块链技术投资策略  

Investment strategy of blockchain in the maritime supply chain under demand uncertainty

作　　者：赵慧达 刘家国 Zhao Huida;Liu Jiaguo(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2025年第1期107-118,共12页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71774019);中央高校基本业务费资助项目(3132022608);大连海事大学优秀博士学位论文资助项目(0143210271).

摘　　要：为理解区块链技术在应对需求不确定时的作用,建立由港口和承运人组成的港航供应链随机需求博弈模型,首先分析了供应链成员投入区块链技术服务前后需求数量的变化,揭示了区块链技术在弥补市场空缺中的潜在价值.其次,分析了区块链服务水平在不同产品数量状态下的投入强度与最大市场容量.最后,在随机市场规律变化的条件下,寻求港航企业合理的区块链技术服务投入策略.此外,本研究扩展分析了港航市场中的“逆反效应”和系统开放程度.研究结果给出不确定环境下区块链服务的投入条件,为推动区块链技术在港航供应链中的应用,保障港航业安全稳定运作提供了坚实的理论基础.To understand the role of blockchain technology in dealing with uncertainty of market demand,this paper constructs a game-theoretical model on maritime supply chain with uncertain demand that includes a port and a carrier.Firstly,this study analyzes the changes in demand quantity before and after the technology investment in blockchain service,which reveals the technical potential value.Secondly,this paper compares the input intensity of blockchain service level and analyzes the maximum market capacity under different product quantities.Finally,we also seek the optimal investment strategy of blockchain technology under the influence of different random markets and analyze the reverse effect of blockchain and the degree of system openness.The result shows the introduction conditions of blockchain technology on the environment of uncertain demand.Moreover,the results promote the application of blockchain technology in maritime supply chain and ensure the safe operation of the maritime industry.

关 键 词：港航供应链 需求不确定 区块链技术价值 逆反效应 系统开放度 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]