基于灰色理论的地下线路改造施工道面的变形预测——以广汉市某灯光线路改造工程为例  

Deformation Prediction of Road Surface in Underground Line Reconstruction Construction Based on Grey Theory:Taking a Certain Lighting Line Reconstruction Project in Guanghan City as an Example

作　　者：史跃亚[1,2] 郭雯雯 孔奕豪 SHI Yueya;GUO Wenwen;KONG Yihao(Civil Aviation Airport Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Engineering Research Center of Sichuan Province,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,Sichuan,China;Airport College,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院四川省民航机场智慧运营与运维工程研究中心,四川广汉618307 [2]中国民用航空飞行学院机场学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第5期8-13,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：四川省民航机场智慧运营与运维工程研究中心项目(JCZX 2023ZZ06)。

摘　　要：地下线路改造施工中道面变形具有不确定性、复杂性等特征。为此,运用灰色理论建立道面变形的预测模型,并结合工程实例验证其有较好精度。鉴于灰色模型在变形预测中仅能预测总体趋势、不能反映预测误差的波动性,通过处理预测误差,定出灰色预测的上、下限值,赋予模型一定的预测区间,改变点预测形式。并依据变形控制线与灰色上、下限曲线的相交位置划分道面变形的安全状态,更为合理地判断施工安全性,为相关工程提供参考借鉴。In the construction of underground line reconstruction,pavement deformation has characteristics such as uncertainty and complexity.Therefore,the grey model was used to establish a prediction model for pavement deformation,and engineering examples were combined to verify its good accuracy.Given that the grey model can only predict the overall trend in deformation prediction and cannot reflect the volatility of prediction errors,prediction errors were processed to determine the upper and lower limit values of grey prediction,endowing the model with a certain prediction interval and changing the point prediction form.According to the intersection position of the deformation control line and the upper and lower limit curves of grey,the safety state of pavement deformation was divided to more reasonably judge the construction safety and provide reference for related projects.

关 键 词：地下线路改造 灰色理论 灰色上、下限 道面变形 安全状态 

分 类 号：TU470.1[建筑科学—结构工程]