省域合作视角下产业结构优化对碳排放强度的影响  

Impact of Industrial Structure Optimization on Carbon Emission Intensity from the Perspective of Provincial Cooperation

作　　者：刘杰 石露 朱菲菲 王永霞 卢元香 LIU Jie;SHI Lu;ZHU Feifei;WANG Yongxia;LU Yuanxiang(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266160,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266160

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第5期151-161,共11页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：青岛理工大学科研启动项目(20500309,20501169);大学生创新训练项目(10336705)。

摘　　要：随着中国工业化和现代化进程进入中期阶段,能源消费量和碳排放量均呈现持续增长趋势,对可持续发展构成了日益严峻的挑战。产业部门作为碳排放的主要来源,其结构优化对于降低碳排放强度至关重要。基于2005—2021年省级样本数据,应用动态面板门槛回归模型,将省域合作视为门槛值,并分别从产业结构合理化和高级化两个维度探讨产业结构优化对碳排放强度的作用机理。结果发现:产业结构合理化和高级化均对碳排放强度有显著负向影响;然而,随着省域合作的提升,产业结构合理化对碳排放强度存在显著的三门槛效应,并且这种门槛效应在整体上呈现出“V”型变化趋势;产业结构高级化对碳排放强度有单门槛效应;只有当省域合作指数超过2.013时,产业结构高级化才会显著促进碳排放强度降低。政府应当积极构建跨省合作机制,以促进省域产业的协同发展与清洁能源技术的广泛共享,进而推动经济向绿色低碳转型。As China enters the middle stage of industrialization and modernization,both energy consumption and carbon emissions are growing,posing an increasingly serious challenge to sustainable development.The industrial sector is a major source of carbon emissions,and its structural optimization is crucial for reducing carbon emission intensity.Based on a sample of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021,a dynamic panel threshold regression model was applied to treat provincial cooperation as a threshold value,and the mechanism of industrial structure optimization on carbon emission intensity was explored from two dimensions:rationalization and advancement of industrial structure.The results show that the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure have a significant negative impact on carbon emission intensity.However,the rationalization of industrial structure has a significant three-threshold effect on carbon emission intensity,and this negative effect shows a“V”type change trend on the whole.The upgrading of industrial structure has a single threshold effect on carbon emission intensity.The upgrading of the industrial structure will significantly promote the reduction of carbon emission intensity only when the provincial cooperation index is at least 2.013.The government should actively establish a cross-provincial cooperation mechanism to foster the coordinated development of inter-provincial industries and facilitate the extensive sharing of clean energy technologies,thereby promoting the transformation of the economy towards a green and low-carbon future.

关 键 词：产业结构优化 碳排放强度 省域合作 动态面板门槛回归模型 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F421.39[经济管理—产业经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]