“虹吸”还是“反哺”?西南地区“一带一路”中心城市经济辐射效应  

“Siphon”or“Feedback”?Economic Radiation Effect of the“Belt and Road”Central Cities in Southwest China

作　　者：黄丽君 向星宇 HUANG Lijun;XIANG Xingyu(School of Finance and Public Administration,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学财政与公共管理学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第5期224-234,共11页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(19CJL043);云南省科技厅基础研究专项(202401AT070281);云南省“兴滇英才”支持项目(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0464)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”建设是一项系统工程,在高质量发展与区域协调的要求下,西南地区“一带一路”建设不仅需要考虑政策中心城市的辐射能力,还需重点考察其对周边地区产生的影响。选取2014—2021年西南地区13个“一带一路”中心城市的面板数据,基于增长极理论、中心-外围理论、产业梯度理论,采用傅里叶定律下的经济辐射模型测算中心城市经济辐射能力。在此基础上,考虑产业同构的调节作用与辐射效应的阶段性特征,应用高维固定效应模型与门槛回归模型对中心城市经济辐射效应进行实证分析,并通过“U”型检验进一步验证。研究发现,西南地区“一带一路”中心城市经济辐射“虹吸”与“反哺”效应同时存在且随经济辐射强度不同呈现阶段性特征,但长期来看表现为“反哺”效应,产业同构强化了该效应,说明“一带一路”政策施行对于西南地区协调发展有显著的促进作用。Under the requirements of high-quality development and regional coordination,the construction of the“Belt and Road”Initiative in southwest China not only needs to consider the radiation capacity of the policy center city,but also needs to focus on its impact on the surrounding areas.Based on the panel data of 13 central cities of the“Belt and Road”in Southwest China from 2014 to 2021,using the economic radiation model under Fourier’s law,the economic radiation capacity of the central city was measured based on the growth pole theory,center-periphery theory and industrial gradient theory.Based on this,considering the moderating effect of industrial isomorphism and the stage characteristics of the radiation effect,the high-dimensional fixed-effect model and threshold regression model were used to empirically analyze the economic radiation effect of the central city,and further verify it through the“U”test.The results show that the“siphon”and“feedback”effects of the economic radiation of the central cities of the“Belt and Road”in Southwest China exist at the same time and show phased characteristics with different economic radiation intensities,but the long-term performance is“feedback”effect,which is strengthened by industrial isomorphism,indicating that the implementation of the“Belt and Road”policy has a significant role in promoting the development of Southwest China.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 经济辐射 “虹吸”效应 “反哺”效应 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]