2025年1月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,January 2025

作　　者：孔庆福 高洁[1] 杨康 秦颖[2] 彭质斌[2] 谢怡然[3] 白文清 李利利[3] 施国庆[1] 向妮娟[1] 涂文校[1] 尹遵栋[4] Kong Qingfu;Gao Jie;Yang Kang;Qin Ying;Peng Zhibin;Xie Yiran;Bai Wenqing;Li Lili;Shi Guoqing;Xiang Nijuan;Tu Wenxiao;Yin Zundong(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Immunization Programme,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心免疫中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2025年第1期7-10,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2025年1月在我国(不含香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果2025年1月突发公共卫生事件仍以传染病类事件为主。当前急性呼吸道传染病呈现持续上升趋势,我国南、北方省份流感病毒检测阳性率快速上升。新型冠状病毒感染疫情近期呈平缓波动,预计2025年1月仍处于低流行水平。人感染禽流感疫情整体风险与之前相比未发生明显改变。2024年12月底我国报告首起输入猴痘病毒Ⅰb亚分支感染疫情。现阶段我国猴痘疫情呈低水平传播,同时持续存在境外输入并造成本地传播的风险。近3个月出现诺如病毒暴发疫情上升趋势,随着学校和托幼机构的寒假来临,预计1月诺如病毒肠炎暴发可能出现小幅降低,但随着2月学校开学,诺如病毒肠炎疫情可能回升。非职业性一氧化碳中毒已进入高发期,尤其是北方地区因采暖不当导致的一氧化碳中毒容易高发。结论对急性呼吸道传染病、流行性感冒、新型冠状病毒感染、人感染禽流感、猴痘、诺如病毒肠炎、非职业性一氧化碳中毒等予以关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong Special Administrative Regions and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in January 2025.Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments,the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial(autonomous region and municipal)centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is predicted that the main public health emergencies in January 2025 would be infectious diseases.At present,the acute respiratory infectious diseases continue to rise,the positive rate of influenza virus in southern and northern provinces of China has risen rapidly.The recent epidemic situation of coronavirus disease(COVID-19)in China is slightly fluctuating,it is estimated that the COVID-19 may remain at a low level in January 2025.The risk of human infection with avian influenza has not changed compared with previous levels.At the end of December 2024,China reported the first case that infected with the mpox virus clade Ib.At present,the mpox in China is spreading at a low level,and there is also a continuous risk of imported cases leading to local transmission.In the past three months,there has been an upward trend in norovirus outbreaks,it is expected that the number of norovirus enteritis outbreaks may slightly decrease in January because of winter vacation.However,with the start of new semester in February,the norovirus enteritis may rebound.Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning has entered a high-incidence period,especially in northern China,where the weather is cold and improper heating methods can easily lead to poisoning.ConclusionAttention should be paid to multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases,influenza,COVID-19,human infection with avian influenza,mpox,nor

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51