俄乌冲突背景下美国智库对俄罗斯核威慑主要认知的文献计量分析  

Bibliometric Analysis of American Think Tanks'Main Perceptions on Russia's Nuclear Deterrence in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：安真仟 刘为军[1] An Zhenqian;Liu Weijun(School of Criminal Investigation,China People's Public Security University,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学侦查学院,北京100038

出　　处：《科学观察》2025年第1期112-124,共13页Science Focus

基　　金：中国人民公安大学侦查学双一流专项(2023SYL02)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]梳理分析俄乌冲突以来美国智库对俄罗斯核威慑的主要认知,定量分析美西方对俄的政策走向,深入理解俄乌冲突对地缘政治的重大影响。[方法/过程]选取美国9家主流智库的1538篇代表性文献作为研究样本,运用文献计量学方法及内容分析法,梳理美国智库对俄核威慑的热点问题及主要认知。[结果/结论]美国智库的议题聚焦于俄罗斯核威慑的具体意图、核威慑未来的可能走向等方面,我国应辩证看待美国智库的观点,吸收其合理认知,在坚持核武器问题一贯立场的同时,提升反制裁能力,并加强自身军事能力建设,积极应对,化解潜在威胁。[Objective/Significance]To analyze the main perceptions of American think tanks on Russian nuclear deterrence since the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and to deeply understand the significant impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on geopolitical politics,which is of great significance for assessing the policy direction of the West towards Russia.[Method/Process]The study selected 1538 representative documents from nine major American think tanks as research samples,employing bibliometric methods and content analysis to identify the hot topics and primary perceptions of American think tanks on Russian nuclear deterrence.[Results/Conclusions]The issues addressed by American think tanks focus on Russia's specific intentions regarding nuclear deterrence and the possible future direction of nuclear deterrence.China should critically evaluate the views of American think tanks,absorb their reasonable insights,and,while adhering to its consistent stance on nuclear weapons,enhance its counter-sanction capabilities and strengthen its military capabilities to actively address and mitigate potential threats.

关 键 词：美国智库 俄乌冲突 核威慑 军事冲突 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]