宏观税负调节下FDI的动态创新溢出效应  

Dynamic Innovation Spillover Effect of FDI under Macro Tax Adjustment

作　　者：李勃昕 马叶叶 韩先锋 仇娟东[4] Li Boxin;Ma Yeye;Han Xianfeng;Qiu Juandong

机构地区：[1]西安财经大学经济学院 [2]西安财经大学公共管理学院 [3]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院校 [4]宁夏大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第2期30-42,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“双向跨境投资驱动中国创新发展的时空演化机制及其共轨溢出效应研究”(19BJL076);国家自然科学基金地区项目“‘一带一路’沿线PPP项目中政府引导对社会资本吸纳效应的影响研究”(72164032);陕西省软科学研究计划项目“基于创新链的陕西省科技人才分类评价体系构建”(2022KRM016)。

摘　　要：全面建设社会主义现代化国家要坚持高水平对外开放,就必须重视外资、用好外资,宏观税负是吸引外资并释放创新溢出效应的重要调节工具。本文通过理论模型剖析宏观税负强度变化对外商直接投资(FDI)创新溢出的迭代传导机制。借助省际面板数据和中介效应模型实证研究发现:宏观税负能够通过对FDI产生负向影响进而调节区域创新水平,且通过FDI影响区域创新水平的中介效应占综合影响的比重约为14.15%。进一步以Hansen面板门槛模型检验宏观税负强度变化时FDI的非线性创新溢出轨迹。结果显示:过低的宏观税负强度会抑制FDI创新溢出;在过高的宏观税负强度下,FDI的创新溢出并不显著;保持合理适度的宏观税负强度才能撬动FDI的正向创新溢出效应。此外,宏观税负强度的非线性调节影响具有时空异质性,释放FDI正向创新溢出的门槛阈值呈现东高西低的顺势演化规律。本文研究发现为实施科学合理的减税降负策略,有效释放FDI的创新溢出红利,提供了非线性理论解释和量化纠偏依据。Comprehensive socialist modernization needs high level opening-up and good use of foreign investment,as well as make good use of it.Macro tax is an important regulatory tool to impel FDI and its innovation spillover effect.The paper analyzes the iterative transmission mechanism of macro tax intensity changes on FDI innovation spillover through theoretical models.With provincial panel data and intermediary effect model,the empirical research finds that:the macro tax intensity could adjust regional innovation level through the negative impact on FDI,and the intermediary effect accounts for about 14.15%of the overall impact.Furthermore,Hansen's panel threshold model is used to test the nonlinear innovation spillover trajectory of FDI when macro tax intensity changes.The results show that:macro tax in low intensity inhibits the innovation spillover of FDI,while macro tax in high intensity does not affect the innovation spillover effect of FDI significantly,and only reasonable and appropriate macro tax intensity could leverage the positive innovation spillover effect of FDI.In addition,the non-linear regulatory impact of macro tax intensity is characterized by temporal and spatial heterogeneity,and the threshold for releasing positive innovation spillover shows a gradual evolution law of high in the east region and low in the west region.The above findings provide non-linear theoretical explanation and quantitative adjustment basis for implementing reasonable and appropriate tax reduction strategy to release the innovation spillover dividend of FDI.

关 键 词：宏观税负 外商直接投资 创新溢出 中介效应 门槛影响 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]