低碳城市试点选址逻辑及绿色增长效应的空间分析  

Spatial Analysis of Low-carbon City Pilot Location Logic and Green Growth Effect

作　　者：陈丛波 叶阿忠 陈娟 肖志学 Chen Congbo;Ye Azhong;Chen Juan;Xiao Zhixue

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学工商管理学院 [2]福州大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第2期111-121,共11页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“数实融合促进区域新质生产力涌现的演化经济地理研究”(42401208);国家自然科学基金面上项目“半参数门限空间滞后模型理论研究及其应用”(72073030);安徽省高校科研计划优秀科研创新团队项目“关键核心技术攻坚及企业案例研究创新团队”(2023AH010009)。

摘　　要：低碳城市试点政策具有先行先试和由点及面的特点,对于我国实现碳达峰碳中和目标和推动绿色发展具有重要意义。本文基于空间二元选择模型探究影响低碳城市试点选址的空间因素,利用两机制空间杜宾模型区分试点城市和非试点城市之间绿色增长的双向非对称空间依赖关系。研究发现,研发创新能力强、经济发展水平高和第二产业增加值占比较低的城市更有可能入选低碳城市试点,且省(区、市)内城市入选试点有助于提高邻近城市下一轮入选低碳城市试点的概率。进一步研究发现,试点政策的绿色增长空间溢出效应显著,我国试点城市与非试点城市之间属于互惠互利的良性竞争。此外,城市第二产业增加值占比较高对城市绿色增长产生影响,因此试点城市存在如何解决第二产业碳排放高的现实问题。空间溢出机制分析结果表明,试点城市和非试点城市之间污染密集型产业和绿色创新资源的空间转移机制具有非对称性。本文研究为我国进一步完善低碳城市试点政策和促进绿色经济增长提供了实证依据和有益参考。The pilot policy of low-carbon cities has the characteristics of early and pilot implementation and from pilot to surfaces,which is of great significance for China to realize the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and promote green development.This paper uses the spatial binary choice model to explore spatial factors affecting location of low-carbon cities,and uses two regimes of spatial panel Durbin model to distinguish asymmetrical spatial interaction of green growth between pilot and non-pilot cities.The study found that cities with strong innovation capabilities,high-level economic development and low-proportion secondary sector were more likely to be selected as low-carbon city pilots.When the cities are selected for the pilot scheme,the provincial neighboring cities'chances of being selected for the next round of Low-carbon city pilot scheme will increase.Further study found that the pilot cities have significant spatial spillover effect on green growth which means pilot cities and non-pilot cities in China have formed the mutual benefit competition.In addition,the higher proportion of secondary sector in urban economy will influence the green growth.The pilot cities should adress the issue of high carbon emissions.The analysis of spatial spillover mechanism shows that the spatial transfer mechanism of pollution-intensive industries and green innovation resources between pilot and non-pilot cities is asymmetric.This study provides empirical evidence and useful reference to further promote low-carbon city pilot and promote green economic growth.

关 键 词：低碳城市试点 空间二元选择模型 两机制空间杜宾模型 绿色经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]