政策变化对中国粮食市场供需的影响  

The impacts of policy changes on the supply and demand in China’s grain market

作　　者：李俊茹 石自忠[2] 王芳[3] LI Junru;SHI Zizhong;WANG Fang(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Polytechnic College,Beijing 100042,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [3]北京工业职业技术学院,北京100042

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2025年第1期68-81,共14页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-01-2024)。

摘　　要：粮食综合生产能力的稳步提升,对加快建设农业强国和促进农业农村现代化发展具有重要意义。本文在量化分析1950—2022年粮食政策文件的基础上,构建中国粮食市场局部均衡模型,把握政策实施对粮食市场供需的既有影响,并模拟未来可能的政策变化对粮食市场供需的影响。研究表明:1)中国粮食政策文件数量及政策指数呈现出波动增长的态势,且表现出较为明显的阶段特征。2)粮食安全问题的关注、管理和责任部门逐步呈现多元化,政策制定实施得到不断落实落细。3)粮食政策实施对粮食单位产量和价格具有显著正向影响;粮食政策指数增强助推播种面积和单位面积产量增加,提升粮食供给保障能力,并推动国内粮食食用、饲用及其他消费增长;粮食政策指数降低作用相反。粮食政策对单位面积产量的作用较对播种面积的作用更为明显,粮食增产重心应放在提高单产上;政策实施对粮食饲用消费的影响较食用消费影响更大,未来粮食用途重点应放在饲料粮上。基于此,建议加强粮食政策的法律法规建设,提高粮食政策的连续性、稳定性和协同性;强化粮食生产能力建设,筑牢粮食安全“压舱石”。The steady increase in overall grain output is of great significance in accelerating to build up China’s strength in agriculture and in promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural development.This paper quantitatively analyzes grain policy documents from 1950 to 2022,constructs a partial equilibrium model of China’s grain market,captures the established impacts of policy implementation on grain market supply and demand,and simulates the impacts of possible future policy changes on grain market.Results show that:1)The number of China’s grain policy documents and policy indexes have shown ffuctuating growth and have demonstrated more obvious stage characteristics;2)Grain security concerns,management and responsibilities have been progressively diversiffed,and policy formulation and implementation have been continuously implemented;3)Grain policy implementation has a signiffcant positive impact on grain unit yields and prices.An increase in the grain policy index contributes to an increase in the planted area and production per unit area,improving grain supply security and boosting domestic grain consumption for feed,forage and other purposes;a decrease in the grain policy index has the opposite effect.The role of grain policy on unit area yield is more obvious than the role of the planted area,the focus of grain production should be placed on improving yields.The implementation of the policy has a greater impact on the consumption of grain for feed than on consumption of grain for food,and the focus of future grain use should be on feed grains.To build up the“ballast stone”of grain security,this paper recommend enhancing the laws and regulations on grain policy,improving the continuity,stability and synergy of grain policy,and strengthening the construction of grain production capacity.

关 键 词：政策变化 粮食市场 粮食安全 供需 政策效应 局部均衡模型 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]