新发展阶段省级经济下行风险识别与其传导网络结构研究——基于总需求、总供给及经济结构视角  

Identification of Provincial Economic Downturn Risks and Transmission Network Structure in the New Development Phase——Based on the Perspectives of Total Demand,Total Supply,and Economic Structure

作　　者：丁一[1,2] 李铭洋 DING Yi;LI Ming-Yang(School of Finance,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China;Nanyang Business School,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore 637616,Singapore;Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学金融学院,吉林长春130117 [2]新加坡南洋理工大学南洋商学院 [3]吉林大学东北亚学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2025年第1期42-51,共10页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“中国信贷周期的形成机理演进、经济周期关联性及其宏观调控政策选择研究”(21YJA790036);国家留学基金委青年骨干教师出国研修项目(202202485008)。

摘　　要：从需求端、供给端及经济结构视角出发,运用非线性时变因子模型LogT检验与聚类分析对我国主要省份经济下行风险来源及收敛特征进行识别。研究发现:我国各地区经济下行风险主要源于有效需求不足及经济结构性失衡,而总供给层面经济下行风险较低。其中,总需求层面下行风险具有全局性及长期性,经济结构扭曲造成的下行风险总体可控;此外,需求端风险传导范围较广且溢出较强,传导路径主要与风险源省份经济体量及其与其他省份产业关联程度有关。因此,当前逆周期调控的着力点应放在总需求管理上,以尽快扭转微观主体预期,提振市场信心;同时推进经济结构调整及转型升级,以防止“结构性减速”;而对于重点风险源及主要风险传导点省份则要针对性出台政策以稳定经济增长。This study examines the sources and convergence characteristics of economic downturn risks in major regions of China from the perspectives of demand,supply,and economic structure.The findings reveal that the economic downturn risks in China's regions are currently primarily attributed to insufficient effective demand and structural imbalances in the economy,while the risks from the supply side remain relatively low.Specifically,the risks on the demand side exhibit global and long-term characteristics,whereas those arising from structural distortions in the economy are generally controllable.Moreover,the transmission of demand-side risks is characterized by a broad range and strong spillover effects,with transmission paths closely related to the economic scale of the risk-originating provinces and their industrial linkages with other regions.Therefore,current counter-cyclical policies should focus on demand management to swiftly reverse the expectations of microeconomic agents and boost market confidence.Simultaneously,efforts to deepen and refine economic structural adjustments and facilitate transformation and upgrading should be prioritized to prevent“structural deceleration.”For provinces identified as key sources of risk and major nodes in the risk transmission network,targeted policy measures should be implemented to stabilize economic growth effectively.

关 键 词：经济下行风险 传导网络 总需求 总供给 经济结构 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]