农业信息化的碳减排效果评估——基于国家农村农业信息化示范省试点的经验证据  

Evaluation of Carbon Reduction Effect of Agricultural Informatization——Based on the Empirical Evidence of the Pilot Project of National Rural Agricultural Informatization Demonstration Provinces

作　　者：张可馨 白永秀[1] ZHANG Ke-xin;BAI Yong-xiu(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2025年第1期137-146,共10页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“西部地区巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的路径及政策研究”(21ZDA063)。

摘　　要：基于国家农村农业信息化示范省设立的准自然实验,利用2003~2021年中国31个省份的面板数据,构建多期双重差分模型分析国家农村农业信息化示范省政策对农业碳减排的影响,并探讨其作用机制、异质性、空间溢出效应。研究发现:信息化政策对农业碳排放强度具有显著抑制作用,此结果经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立;机制分析中,信息化政策可通过技术进步、规模经营、优化资源配置促进农业碳减排,其中技术进步的机制作用最突出;异质性分析中,信息化政策对受教育程度较高劳动力、东部地区以及粮食主产区的农业碳排放强度影响最强;空间溢出效应分析中,信息化政策对地理距离相近地区的农业碳排放强度影响具有显著的负向空间溢出效应。据此,应加快推进信息化技术应用与推广,提高技术创新支持力度、优化资源配置结构、推动规模适度发展,以信息化助力农业低碳转型。Based on the quasi-natural experiment set up by the national rural agricultural Informatization demonstration province,using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2021,a multi-period differential model was constructed to analyze the impact of national rural agricultural informatization demonstration province policies on agricultural carbon emission reduction,and explore its mechanism,heterogeneity,and spatial spillover effects.It is found that informatization policy has a significant inhibition effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity,and this result is still valid after a series of robustness tests.In the mechanism analysis,informatization policy can promote agricultural carbon emission reduction through technological progress,scale management and optimization of resource allocation,and the mechanism of technological progress is the most prominent.In the heterogeneity analysis,the influence of informatization policy on agricultural carbon emission intensity is the strongest in the labor force with higher education level,the eastern region and the main grain-producing areas.In the analysis of spatial spillover effect,informatization policy has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity in geographically close regions.Therefore,it is proposed to accelerate the application and promotion of information technology,improve the support for technological innovation,optimize the resource allocation structure,promote the appropriate development of scale,and use information to help the low-carbon transformation of agriculture.

关 键 词：信息化 国家农村农业信息化示范省 碳减排 农业碳排放强度 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]