基于ARDL模型的江苏省社会物流总费用影响因素研究  

Research on the Influencing Factors of Total Social Logistics Costs in Jiangsu Province Based on ARDL Model

作　　者：孙源康 SUN Yuankang(JSTI Group Limited,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]苏交科集团股份有限公司,南京210000

出　　处：《交通工程》2025年第3期27-31,共5页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：基于江苏省2000年至2023年的数据,探讨社会物流总费用与GDP的比率与多项关键经济因素之间的动态关系。这些因素包括产业结构、经济发展水平、运输业情况、交通发展水平、铁路货运量和公路货运量。通过构建自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL),本研究分析各因素对物流成本的短期与长期影响。结果显示,产业结构优化、铁路货运比例提升有助于降低社会物流总费用,而交通发展水平对社会物流总费用影响不明显。本研究为政策制定者在推动物流成本下降与经济高质量发展的过程中提供实证依据,强调促进产业升级与物流运输结构优化的重要性。Based on the data of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2023,the dynamic relationship between the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP and a number of key economic factors is explored.These factors include industrial structure,economic development level,transportation industry,traffic development level,railway freight volume and highway freight volume.By constructing the autoregressive distributed lag model(ARDL),this study analyzes the short-term and long-term impact of various factors on logistics costs.The results indicate that the optimization of industrial structure and the increase in the proportion of railway freight contribute to reducing total social logistics costs,while the impact of transportation development level on total social logistics costs is not significant.This study provides empirical evidence for policymakers in promoting the reduction of logistics costs and economic high-quality development,emphasizing the importance of facilitating industrial upgrading and optimizing the structure of logistics transportation.

关 键 词：社会物流总费用 产业结构 运输结构优化 铁路货运 自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL) 

分 类 号：U4-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]