快速路合流区几何设计与换道行为的关联关系研究  

Association Analysis between Geometric Design and Lane-Changing Behavior in Expressway Merging Areas

作　　者：张凯 荣建 董子行 ZHANG Kai;RONG Jian;DONG Zihang(College of Metropolitan Transportation,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市交通学院,北京100124 [2]广州大学土木与交通工程学院,广州510006 [3]北京建筑大学土木与交通工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通工程》2025年第3期47-53,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：快速路合流区的几何设计制约着换道行为模式,然而几何设计与换道行为的关联关系尚未被系统揭示。研究采集广州绕城高速10处合流区的轨迹数据,通过多项Logistic回归模型筛选关键换道参数,结合贝叶斯网络构建“几何设计—换道参数—换道行为”的多层次关联结构。研究发现:加速车道长度、三角区鼻端角度和车道平衡3项关键设计要素通过约束换道间隙和换道速差,间接影响换道行为模式;自由换道、合作换道与压迫换道呈现出明显的递进转化关系;非标准道路条件会降低可接受间隙和换道速度差,进而增加了压迫换道的可能性。研究结论可为道路、交通工程设计优化和智能交通管控提供理论依据。The geometric design of expressway merging areas constrains lane-changing behaviors,yet their associations have not been systematically revealed.High-resolution vehicle trajectory data were collected from 10 merging areas along Guangzhou Ring Expressway to analyze these associations.Key lane-changing parameters were first identified through multinomial logistic regression analysis.A hierarchical association structure was then established using Bayesian networks to connect geometric design parameters,lane-changing parameters,and lane-changing behaviors.The findings indicate that three critical design elements(acceleration lane length,nose angle of gore area,and lane balance)indirectly influence lane-changing behaviors by constraining acceptable gaps and speed differentials.A clear progressive transformation relationship emerges among discretionary,cooperative,and forced lane-changing behaviors.Substandard geometric conditions reduce acceptable gaps and speed differences.This reduction subsequently increases the probability of forced lane-changing maneuvers.The research findings provide theoretical support for road and traffic engineering design optimization and intelligent traffic control.

关 键 词：合流区几何设计 换道行为 关联关系 多项Logistic回归 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]