基于DEA-Tobit的公交系统效益评价及影响因素分析  

Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Public Transport System Based on DEA-Tobit and Analysis of the Factors Influencing It

作　　者：朱正 王帅 ZHU Zheng;WANG Shuai(China Design Group,Nanjing 210001,China;Hohai University College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Nanjing 210024,China)

机构地区：[1]华设设计集团股份有限公司,南京210001 [2]河海大学土木与交通学院,南京210024

出　　处：《交通工程》2025年第3期60-65,74,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：泰州市城市客运综合监管系统,JSJT20241011002。

摘　　要：高效的城市公共交通系统是城市现代化的重要支撑,也为人们的日常出行提供服务与保障。公交线网是公共交通系统的核心,为更好地对城市公共交通进行评价,优化公交运行效能,本文使用数据包络分析法,基于BCC模型,以泰州市海陵区18条公交线路运营数据为研究样本,从定量的角度对公交运行情况进行评价研究。结果表明,部分线路技术效率值低于1,这说明部分线路运营效率仍存在较大的提升空间。在评价基础上,使用Tobit回归模型对投入指标的影响因素进行分析,研究结果可为制定政策和改进管理措施提供指导,对促进优先发展公共交通十分重要。An efficient urban public transportation system is an important support for urban modernization and provides services and guarantees for people s daily travel.The bus network is the core of the public transportation system.In order to better evaluate urban public transportation and optimize its operational efficiency,this paper uses data envelopment analysis and BCC model to evaluate the operation of 18 bus routes in Hailing District,Taizhou City from a quantitative perspective.The results show that the technical efficiency values of some lines are lower than 1,indicating that there is still significant room for improvement in the operational efficiency of some lines.Based on the evaluation,Tobit regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of input indicators.The research results can provide direction for policy formulation and management measures improvement,which is of great significance for promoting the priority development of public transportation.

关 键 词：城市交通 公交运行 BCC模型 Tobit回归分析 运营效率 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]