轨道交通中人员伤亡与控制措施成本的关系研究  

Study on the Relationship between Casualties and Cost of Control Measures in Rail Transit

作　　者：李莎莎 崔铁军 LI Shasha;CUI Tiejun(School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Shenyang Ligong University,Shenyang 110159,China;Liaoning Modern Safety Engineering Industry School,Shenyang Ligong University,Shenyang 110159,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,沈阳110159 [2]沈阳理工大学辽宁省现代安全工程产业学院,沈阳110159

出　　处：《交通工程》2025年第3期81-85,93,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52004120)。

摘　　要：为研究轨道交通中控制不良人为事件的措施成本效用,提出人员伤亡与控制措施成本关系分析方法。研究轨道交通中人为事件与伤亡事故演化过程;人为事件发生概率与控制措施成本关系;最后提出关系分析方法。研究表明:人为事件易导致伤亡,乘客缺乏专业知识与应急能力,因此不安全行为易传播成群体性事件。研究应考虑人为事件及其演化条件对伤亡事件的影响,及措施成本与效用的非线性关系。利用空间故障网络理论构建伤亡演化图,确定事件与演化条件发生概率,人员伤亡措施成本函数,得到措施成本与人员伤亡概率分布图。通过实例分析,发现即便增加措施成本,人员伤亡概率降幅有限。说明该现象原因,并基于此给出通用防治手段。In order to study the cost-effectiveness of measures to control undesirableman-made events in rail transit,a method for analyzing the relationship between casualties and control measures cost was proposed.The evolution process of man-made events and casualties in rail transit is studied.The relationship between the probability of man-made events and the cost of control measures;finally,a relational analysis method is proposed.Studies have shown that man-made events are easy to cause casualties,and passengers lack professional knowledge and emergency response ability,so unsafe behaviors are easy to spread into mass incidents.The study should consider the influence of man-made events and their evolution conditions on casualty events,and the nonlinear relationship between cost and effectiveness of measures.The space fault network theory is used to construct the casualty evolution diagram,and the occurrence probability of event and evolution condition,and casualty measure cost function are determined,and the measure cost and casualty probability distribution diagram are obtained.Through the case analysis,it is found that the probability of casualties is limited even if the cost of measures is increased.The cause of this phenomenon is explained,and the general prevention and control measures are given based on this.

关 键 词：安全系统工程 轨道交通 人员伤亡 措施成本 关系分析 方法研究 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]