船舶行业发展趋势与船厂经营思考  

Development Trends of the Shipbuilding Industry and Thoughts on Shipyard Management

作　　者：余志红 Yu Zhihong(Xiamen ITG Group Corp.,Ltd,Shanghai 201106)

机构地区：[1]厦门国贸集团股份有限公司,上海201106

出　　处：《对外经贸》2025年第3期47-51,共5页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

摘　　要：船舶行业具有明显的周期性特征,全球船厂加速整合,造船行业集中度大幅提升,需求端船龄到期的更换需求是主要贡献,碳中和政策趋严也将催化环保船需求。通过供需轧差的分析方法,预计新造船市场将出现持续的供需缺口,卖方市场量价双高而钢材成本低位,船厂订单充足,船企盈利预计好转。船厂可把握时机,注重提升专业化经营管理水平,有效打造竞争壁垒。中小船厂则警惕环境不确定性,更加需要明确对船舶行业细分赛道的选择和聚焦。The shipbuilding industry has obvious cyclical characteristics.At present,global shipyards are accelerating their integration,and the concentration of the shipbuilding industry has significantly increased.On the demand side,the replacement demand for expired ships is the main contribution,and the tightening of carbon neutrality policies will also catalyze the demand for environmentally friendly ships.Through supply-demand imbalance analysis,it is expected that there will be a sustained supply-demand gap in the new shipbuilding market.With high volume and price in the seller's market,low steel costs and sufficient shipyard orders,the improvement in profitability for shipbuilding companies is expected.Shipyards can seize the opportunity,focus on improving their professional management level,and effectively create competitive barriers.Small and medium-sized shipyards need to clarify their selections,focus on the segmented tracks of the shipbuilding industry,be vigilant about the clearance risks of small factories.

关 键 词：船舶制造产业链 船舶供给 船舶需求 供需轧差 船厂经营 

分 类 号：F426.474[经济管理—产业经济]