中国高速公路总体规模测标研究  

Discussion on the method of measuring the overall scale of Chinese expressways

作　　者：赵光辉 ZHAO Guanghui(Guizhou Institute of Transportation Economics and Technology,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,School of Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学贵州交通经济技术研究院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]浙江财经大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第S1期238-243,共6页China Soft Science

基　　金：贵州省教育厅2024年高校人文社会科学研究项目“贵州积极对接融入粤港澳大湾区建设的战略定位、优势及实现路径研究”(2024RW68)。

摘　　要：为了研究中国高速公路建设规模范围的合理性,采用面密度、人密度、车密度3个测算模型,先对美、英、法、德、日等国家和中国的广东、江苏、浙江、山东四省的高速公路及全国各省市的高速公路规模进行测算,结果显示用面密度、人密度、车密度和发达国家的比对来测算结果均出现非常大的差异,表明已有方法不适宜作预测。然后设计综合面积、人口、车辆拥有量和GDP四个因素的几何平均模型,使用各发达国家比对的最大值来测算,结果与现实比较平衡,适合作为中国建设规模目标里程的参考值底限。计算结果表明:(1)现在全国及广东、浙江、山东的高速公路建设规模已经过度了;(2)北京、江苏、上海和西藏高速公路发展相对不足。In order to study the reasonable scope of the scale of highway construction in China,the three measurement models of surface density,human density and vehicle density are adopted.First,the highways of the five developed countries,including the United States,the United Kingdom,France,Germany and Japan,and the four provinces of Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shandong in China,and then the highway scale of all provinces and cities in China are measured.The calculation results show that there is a very large difference between the comparison of surface density,human density,vehicle density and developed countries,indicating that the existing methods are not suitable for prediction.This paper designs a geometric average model of four factors:comprehensive area,population,vehicle ownership and GDP,and uses the maximum value of each developed country to measure it.The results are balanced with reality,which is suitable as the reference limit of the target mileage of China’s construction scale.The calculation results show that:1)The construction scale of highways in China and Guangdong,Zhejiang and Shandong has been excessive;2)The development of highways in Beijing,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Tibet is relatively insufficient.

关 键 词：高速公路 高速建设规模 测算模型 现代交通运输 

分 类 号：U4[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]