黑龙江省农业净碳汇驱动因素及与农业经济增长关联度研究  

Driving Factors of Agricultural Net Carbon Sink and Its Correlation with Agricultural Economic Growth in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：暴馨瞳 秦会艳[1] BAO Xintong;QIN Huiyan(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2024年第6期33-46,共14页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CGL064)。

摘　　要：基于黑龙江省农业生产面板数据,测算2008—2022年黑龙江省农业碳排放量与碳汇量,在此基础上测算出净碳汇量,并对其时序演变特征进行分析,运用扩展的对数迪氏指数分解(LMDI)模型深入剖析影响黑龙江省农业净碳汇的各项因素,借助Tapio脱钩模型探究农业净碳汇与农业经济增长之间的关联程度。结果表明:(1)研究期内,秸秆燃烧是黑龙江省农业碳排放的首要来源,农业碳汇则主要由水稻等粮食作物贡献。农业净碳汇总量大致呈现出一种波动上升的趋势,从2008年的2959.98万t增长至2022年的4906.47万t,增长率达到了65.76%。(2)农业产业结构和农业经济发展水平因素对农业净碳汇的增长起到了促进作用,其他因素则对农业净碳汇起到抑制作用。(3)农业净碳汇与农业经济增长的关系总体上呈现出良性互动的趋势,但耦合状态尚且一般,环境效益的提升速度持续滞后于经济效益。With the panel data of agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province,the agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Heilongjiang Province from 2008 to 2022 were calculated.On this basis,the net carbon sinks were calculated and their temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed.The extended logarithmic Divisia index decomposition(LMDI)model was used to deeply analyze the factors affecting the agricultural net carbon sinks in Heilongjiang Province,and the Tapio decoupling model was used to explore the correlation between agricultural net carbon sinks and agricultural economic growth.The results showed that:(1)During the study period,straw burning was the primary source of agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province,and agricultural carbon sinks were mainly contributed by grain crops such as rice.The total amount of agricultural net carbon sinks generally showed a fluctuating upward trend,from 29.5998 million tons in 2008 to 49.0647 million tons in 2022,with a growth rate of 65.76%.(2)The factors of agricultural industrial structure and agricultural economic development level have promoted the growth of agricultural net carbon sinks,while other factors have inhibited the growth of agricultural net carbon sinks.(3)The relationship between agricultural net carbon sinks and agricultural economic growth generally shows a trend of benign interaction,but its coupling state is still at a moderate level,and the improvement rate of environmental benefits continues to lag behind economic benefits.

关 键 词：农业净碳汇 时序演变 耦合关系 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]