2014—2023年甘肃省职业病发病特征及基于灰色模型的短期预测  

Characteristics of incidence of new occupational diseases in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2023 and their prediction based on the grey model

作　　者：马媛媛 张本忠[1] 张海涯 赵芯瑞 周丹妮 罗贤峰 赵文莉[2] MA Yuanyuan;ZHANG Benzhong;ZHANG Haiya;ZHAO Xinrui;ZHOU Danni;LUO Xianfeng;ZHAO Wenli(School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Occupational Health Department,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心职业卫生科,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报(医学版)》2025年第1期75-81,共7页Journal of Lanzhou University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：甘肃省卫生行业科研计划资助项目(GSWSKY2020-56);甘肃省科技计划资助项目(创新基地和人才计划)(20JR10RA420)。

摘　　要：目的分析甘肃省新发职业病发病情况,为职业病防治政策的制定及科学研究提供数据支撑与参考依据。方法新发职业病数据来源于职业病与职业卫生信息监测系统,人口数据来源于甘肃省统计年鉴。采用χ2检验、Fisher精确概率法或Kruskal-Wallis H检验比较职业病发病年龄和接害工龄等方面的差异,采用灰色模型预测2024—2028年职业病及其不同特征的发病例数。结果甘肃省2014—2023年共报告2095例新发职业病病例,涵盖8大类47种疾病。尘肺病及其他呼吸系统疾病发病最多,共计1714例(81.81%);职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病共计123例(5.87%);职业性传染病与职业性化学中毒均为121例(5.78%)、其他职业病16例(0.76%)。各类职业病新发病例平均发病年龄为49(44,55)岁;接害工龄为13(6,23)年。大型企业职业病患者的发病年龄大于微型企业,国有、合资、大型企业接害工龄长于私有、小微型企业。灰色模型GM(1,1)预测显示,甘肃省2024—2028年职业性尘肺病及其他呼吸系统疾病为主要职业病,且发病数呈上升趋势,职业性传染病、耳鼻喉口腔疾病及化学性中毒发病例数较小且趋于平稳;一类地区未来5年职业病新发病例数有下降趋势,四类地区职业病新发病例数有明显上升趋势。结论尘肺病是甘肃省主要职业病病种,应重点加强对小、微型企业和私有企业的职业病监管,加强对第四类地区和小型企业的职业病防治帮扶。Objective To analyze the reported data on the incidence of occupational diseases in Gansu Province in order to provide data support and reference for the formulation of future occupational disease prevention and control policies,as well as for scientific research work.Methods Data on new occupational disease came from the Occupational Disease and Occupational Health Information Monitoring System.Population data was sourced from the Gansu Statistical Yearbook.The chi-square test,Fisher's exact probability method,or Kruskal-Wallis H test were used to compare the differences in the onset age of occupational diseases and the length of exposure to hazards.The grey model was adopted to predict the number of incidence cases of occupational diseases and those with different characteristics from 2024 to 2028.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 2095 newly reported cases of occupational diseases were documented in Gansu Province,covering 47 different types of diseases across 8 major categories.Among them,pneumoconiosis and other respiratory system diseases accounted for the highest number of cases,totaling 1714(81.81%).123 cases(5.87%)in occupational ear,nose,throat,and oral diseases,and 121 cases in occupational infectious diseases and chemical poisoning,each accounting for 5.78%.Other occupational diseases comprised 16 cases(0.76%).The average age of diagnosis for all types of occupational diseases was 49(44,55)years,with an average exposure duration of 13(6,23)years.The diagnosis age of occupational disease patients in large enterprises was greater than that in small enterprises.The years of exposure to hazards in state-owned,joint-venture and large enterprises were longer than those in private and medium and small enterprises.The prediction by the grey model GM(1,1)showed that,from 2024 to 2028 in Gansu Province,occupational pneumoconiosis and other respiratory syndromes were the main occupational diseases.Moreover,the number of incidence cases presented an upward trend,while those of occupational infectious diseases,o

关 键 词：职业病 发病特征 灰色模型 甘肃省 尘肺病 流行病学 

分 类 号：R135.1[医药卫生—劳动卫生] R135.2[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]